How many government employees will Trump cut?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 23:02 UTCCloses 4 Mar 2027 (in 4 mo)
Most likely: More than 100,000
All outcomes (6)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
More than 100,000 | 14% | — |
More than 150,000 | 10% | — |
More than 200,000 | 10% | — |
More than 300,000 | 8% | — |
More than 250,000 | 6% | — |
More than 350,000 | 2% | — |
How this market resolves
If there are more than 100000 federal employees no longer working relative to the December 2025 employee count before January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “How many government employees will Trump cut”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price More than 100,000 as the most likely outcome at 14% (as of 12 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 4 Mar 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.