Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. Gold?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 23:26 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: S&P 500 Total Return Index
All outcomes (2)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
S&P 500 Total Return Index | 86% | ▼ 4.0 pts |
Gold | 15% | ▲ 8.0 pts |
How this market resolves
If S&P 500 Total Return Index performs above Gold for the period of 2026 by 0.001% then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. Gold”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price S&P 500 Total Return Index as the most likely outcome at 86% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.