Tesla Roadster delivery
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 10:42 UTCCloses 1 Jul 2028 (in 21 mo)
Most likely: Before July, 2028
All outcomes (5)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Before July, 2028 | 28% | ▼ 7.0 pts |
Before 2029 | 26% | ▼ 25.0 pts |
Before 2028 | 20% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
Before July, 2027 | 4% | — |
Before 2027 | 1% | — |
How this market resolves
If the Tesla Roadster begins delivery before Jul 1, 2028, the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Tesla Roadster delivery”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Before July, 2028 as the most likely outcome at 28% (as of 19 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jul 2028. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.