How high will unemployment get in 2026?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 18:16 UTCCloses 8 Jan 2027 (in 3 mo)
Most likely: Above 4.5%
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Above 4.5% | 13% | — |
Above 17% | 9% | — |
Above 4.8% | 4% | — |
Above 5% | 4% | — |
Above 9% | 4% | — |
Above 8% | 4% | — |
Above 10% | 3% | — |
Above 20% | 3% | — |
How this market resolves
If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.5%, the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “How high will unemployment get in 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Above 4.5% as the most likely outcome at 13% (as of 21 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 8 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.