ECB rate cut in 2026?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 23:02 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 50 days)
Chance of “Yes”
Outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | ▼ 0.4 pts |
No | 98% | — |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “ECB rate cut in 2026”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price “Yes” at 2% (as of 12 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More economy markets
- KalshiFed decision in Dec 2026?85%Hike 25bps
- KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?99%Before Feb 1, 2027
- PolymarketAnthropic IPO by __?98%December 15, 2026
- KalshiFed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?99%Above 2.75%
- PolymarketAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?96%Yes
- KalshiWhen will Jensen Huang leave as Nvidia CEO?19%Yes
Latest economy news
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, more than expected, complicating Fed's inflation fight10 Nov 2026· CNBC Economy
- Polymarket puts December Fed hike odds at 85% after hot CPI10 Nov 2026· Crypto News
- China’s monthly imports grow at fastest pace in five years as surplus crosses $1 trillion in 202610 Nov 2026· CNBC Economy
- 3 unexpected reasons the October jobs report was so strong10 Nov 2026· CNBC Economy
Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.