LA mayor race odds: Karen Bass vs Nithya Raman on Polymarket and Kalshi
Prediction markets make Karen Bass a slight favourite to win the 3 November Los Angeles mayoral runoff, while the latest Berkeley poll has Nithya Raman ahead. The odds on both platforms, the primary results, and why markets and polls disagree.
Prediction markets give Karen Bass about a 55% chance of winning the Los Angeles mayor's race, with Nithya Raman at about 45%. Both Polymarket and Kalshi price the runoff, set for 3 November 2026, as close to a coin flip with a small edge to the incumbent.
The polls tell a different story: the most recent major survey, by UC Berkeley in September, had Raman ahead. That gap is what makes this race worth watching.
Prices as of 21 October 2026. Odds move daily; see the live markets below.
LA mayor odds today
| Candidate | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass (incumbent) | 55% | 56% (bid 55¢, ask 56¢) |
| Nithya Raman | 45% | 45% |
Trading has been heavy for a city race: more than $15 million on Polymarket's event, which began before the primary, and more than 40 million contracts across the two candidates on Kalshi. On Kalshi, Bass's price rose from 49¢ to 56¢ over the previous day.
Live prices: LA mayor on Polymarket · LA mayor on Kalshi.
Margin of victory
Polymarket also lists the margin. As of 21 October the most likely bands were a Raman win by 0–4 points (about 22%) and a Bass win by 0–4 points (about 21%): the market expects a close finish.
How we got here: the June primary
Los Angeles uses a nonpartisan top-two system: if nobody wins a majority in June, the top two meet in November. In the 2 June 2026 primary:
| Candidate | Share | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass | 34.3% | Advanced |
| Nithya Raman | 29.0% | Advanced |
| Spencer Pratt | 25.5% | Eliminated |
About 46,000 votes separated Bass and Raman, and about 21,800 separated Raman and Pratt, the Republican reality-TV figure whose campaign drew national attention. Rick Caruso, who lost to Bass in 2022, is not in the runoff.
The runoff is a contest between two Democrats. Raman, a city council member backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, ran to Bass's left on housing, affordability and homelessness. Where Pratt's voters go is one of the biggest unknowns.
Markets vs polls
| Source | When | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Median Strategies | 30 July – 5 August | Bass 50.2%, Raman 38.4% |
| UC Berkeley (co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times) | 15–20 September | Raman 39%, Bass 28%, 33% undecided |
| Prediction markets | 21 October | Bass about 55%, Raman about 45% |
Why might markets lean to Bass when the latest big poll does not?
- A third of voters were undecided in September, and incumbents often pick up late deciders.
- Turnout: November turnout is much higher than in June, and a broader electorate may be more moderate than the primary one.
- Pratt's voters: a quarter of the primary vote went to a Republican; few are likely to back a democratic socialist.
- Market momentum: prices can also overreact to a single news story or a few large trades (are prediction markets accurate?).
Neither is a guarantee. A 55% favourite loses 45% of the time.
How to read these odds
A price of 55¢ means the market puts Bass's chance at about 55%. If you think her true chance is higher, the Bass contract is cheap; if lower, Raman is the value side. Before trading, run your own estimate through the expected value calculator, and remember that a price gap between Kalshi and Polymarket is rarely free money once fees are counted (prediction market arbitrage).
Other big races on 3 November: 2026 election odds · governor races.
LA mayor odds: frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the LA mayor race?
Karen Bass, narrowly: about 55% on Polymarket and 56% on Kalshi as of 21 October 2026.
When is the Los Angeles mayoral runoff?
3 November 2026, between Karen Bass and Nithya Raman.
What does the latest poll say?
UC Berkeley's September poll had Raman at 39% and Bass at 28%, with a third undecided. An earlier summer poll had Bass ahead.
Did Spencer Pratt make the runoff?
No. He finished third in the June primary with 25.5%.
Can I bet on the LA mayor race?
In the US you can trade it as an event contract on Kalshi or Polymarket US, where available; Polymarket's global site is not open to US users.
