Next Fed rate cut?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 19:48 UTCCloses 1 Jul 2028 (in 20 mo)
Most likely: Before July 2028
All outcomes (5)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Before July 2028 | 85% | — |
Before 2029 | 82% | — |
Before 2028 | 52% | ▲ 3.0 pts |
Before July 2027 | 28% | — |
Before 2027 | 6% | — |
How this market resolves
If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before June 30, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Next Fed rate cut”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Before July 2028 as the most likely outcome at 85% (as of 7 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jul 2028. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.