NFL Coach of the Year odds: John Harbaugh leads at 28% after turning the 4-13 Giants into division leaders
Kalshi makes John Harbaugh the Coach of the Year favourite at about 28% in his first season with the Giants, ahead of Chicago’s Ben Johnson, Cleveland’s Todd Monken and San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan. The odds, each candidate’s case, what kind of coach usually wins, and why last season’s midseason favourite lost.
In this article
The Coach of the Year race is about turnarounds, and this season has several. On the morning of Sunday 8 November 2026, Kalshi priced John Harbaugh as the favourite for the AP NFL Coach of the Year award at about 28%. In his first season with the New York Giants, Harbaugh has taken a team that went 4-13 last year to 4-2-1 and first place in the NFC East.
Behind him are Ben Johnson of the Chicago Bears (about 19.5%), Todd Monken of the Cleveland Browns (about 15.5%) and Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers (about 13.5%). Nobody else is above 5%.
Coach of the Year odds at a glance
Source: Kalshi market data: KXNFLCOTY-27
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| Value | |
|---|---|
| John Harbaugh (NYG) | 27.5% |
| Ben Johnson (CHI) | 19.5% |
| Todd Monken (CLE) | 15.5% |
| Kyle Shanahan (SF) | 13.5% |
| Klint Kubiak (LV) | 4.0% |
| Liam Coen (JAX) | 3.5% |
| Kevin O’Connell (MIN) | 3.5% |
| Mike McCarthy (PIT) | 3.5% |
| Joe Brady (BUF) | 2.5% |
| Dan Campbell (DET) | 2.5% |
Live prices: Kalshi's Coach of the Year market.
The contenders
| Coach | Team | 2026 record | 2025 record | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Harbaugh | NY Giants | 4-2-1 | 4-13 | 27.5% |
| Ben Johnson | Chicago | 6-2 | 11-6 | 19.5% |
| Todd Monken | Cleveland | 5-3 | 5-12 | 15.5% |
| Kyle Shanahan | San Francisco | 6-1 | 12-5 | 13.5% |
| Klint Kubiak | Las Vegas | 4-4 | 3-14 | 4% |
| Liam Coen | Jacksonville | 6-2 | 13-4 | 3.5% |
| Kevin O'Connell | Minnesota | 6-1 | 9-8 | 3.5% |
| Mike McCarthy | Pittsburgh | 6-2 | 10-7 | 3.5% |
Records from ESPN before Week 10's Sunday games; 2025 records are the team's, under its previous coach where it changed. Prices: Kalshi, 8 November 2026.
John Harbaugh. The longtime Baltimore coach joined the Giants this year after 18 seasons with the Ravens. The Giants went 4-13 in 2025; at 4-2-1, they lead the NFC East, and Kalshi makes them about 58.5% to make the playoffs. Voters have rewarded exactly this kind of story before, and Harbaugh's track record makes the turnaround easy to credit to the coach.
Ben Johnson. In his second season, Johnson has Chicago at 6-2 and about 85.5% to make the playoffs. His problem is the baseline: the Bears were already 11-6 last year, so the improvement is smaller than Harbaugh's or Monken's.
Todd Monken. The former Ravens offensive coordinator took over a 5-12 Browns team in January and has them at 5-3. Cleveland led the AFC North after six weeks for the first time since 2014. The market is cautious about the Browns' playoff chances, at about 31.5%, which is why Monken trails Harbaugh despite a similar turnaround.
Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers are 6-1 and about 95% to make the playoffs. Shanahan has the best record of the leading candidates, but San Francisco went 12-5 last season, and voters rarely give Coach of the Year to a team that was already good.
The rest. Klint Kubiak's Raiders have already passed last season's win total, at 4-4 after 3-14, but they are only about 17% to make the playoffs. Kevin O'Connell won the award in 2024 and has Minnesota at 6-1. Mike McCarthy, in his first season in Pittsburgh, has the Steelers at 6-2.
What kind of coach wins
The AP award has gone to coaches who lead big improvements far more often than to coaches of teams that were already strong:
| Season | Winner | Team | Record (previous season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mike Vrabel | New England | 14-3 (4-13) |
| 2024 | Kevin O'Connell | Minnesota | 14-3 (7-10) |
| 2023 | Kevin Stefanski | Cleveland | 11-6 (7-10) |
| 2022 | Brian Daboll | NY Giants | 9-7-1 (4-13) |
| 2021 | Mike Vrabel | Tennessee | 12-5 (11-5) |
Source: Associated Press NFL awards; team records.
Four of the last five winners took over or led a team that had a losing record the year before. That pattern explains the market's order: Harbaugh and Monken inherited 4-13 and 5-12 teams; Johnson and Shanahan did not.
Why last season's midseason favourite lost
Kalshi's 2025 market is a useful warning. At the end of October 2025, Shane Steichen of Indianapolis was the favourite at about 49%. Mike Vrabel, who won, was at 28%, and he had been as low as 4% at the end of September. Kyle Shanahan briefly passed Vrabel on New Year's Eve at 41% before Vrabel led for good from 1 January.
Across the five big NFL awards last season, none of the midseason favourites won, and all five winners led their markets by early January. Our full study: how the markets priced the 2025 NFL awards.
What could change the race
- The Giants' second half. Harbaugh's case depends on the Giants staying in the playoff picture. Their tie counts as half a win and half a loss, so the standings are tighter than the record suggests.
- Cleveland's playoff chances. If the Browns keep winning and the market's 31.5% rises, Monken's price should follow.
- A late surge. Last season, Vrabel's price nearly doubled in the final two weeks of the regular season.
- Voters' narratives. The award is decided by a panel of 50 media members after the regular season, and the stories told in December matter.
How the market has moved this season
Source: Kalshi market data: KXNFLCOTY-27, daily closes (ET)
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| John Harbaugh | Ben Johnson | Todd Monken | Jesse Minter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Sep | 11% | 6% | 4% | 16% |
| 23 Sep | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% |
| 7 Oct | 12% | 17% | 14% | 6% |
| 21 Oct | 8% | 9% | 16% | 4% |
| 31 Oct | 25% | 14% | 23% | 0% |
| 7 Nov | 28% | 20% | 16% | 1% |
Before Week 1, the market's favourite was Jesse Minter, Harbaugh's successor in Baltimore, at about 16%, with Kellen Moore of New Orleans at 14% and Harbaugh at 11%. Minter's price faded as the Ravens struggled and is now about 1%; Moore's went to zero as the Saints fell to 2-5.
Harbaugh dropped to 4% in late September, and he did not take a clear lead until the end of October. Monken peaked at about 23% at the end of October and has slipped back to about 16%. Johnson has climbed steadily, from 6% before the season to about 20%.
The pattern is typical of the award: early-season prices reflect reputations and preseason expectations, and the market rebuilds itself around the standings once a few weeks of results are in.
How the voting works
The award is decided by a panel of 50 media members who vote after the regular season ends. Since 2022, AP voters have ranked their top three choices, with five points for a first-place vote, three for second and one for third, and the coach with the most points wins. A broad consensus can therefore beat a candidate with more first-place votes but fewer second- and third-place mentions.
That system helps candidates who are on almost every ballot, which favours coaches with clean narratives, like a turnaround, over those whose case depends on a single view of the season.
Linking the coach and team markets
Coach of the Year prices tend to move with each team's playoff chances. On 8 November, Kalshi priced the Giants at about 58.5% to make the playoffs, the Bears at about 85.5%, the Browns at about 31.5% and the 49ers at about 95%. A trader who believes in the Browns could buy Cleveland to make the playoffs or Monken for Coach of the Year; the second is the more leveraged bet, since Monken needs both a playoff push and the votes to go with it.
The first-year coaches
Ten teams changed head coach before the 2026 season, according to ESPN, and they have had very different results. Harbaugh's Giants (4-2-1), Monken's Browns (5-3), Mike McCarthy's Steelers (6-2) and Joe Brady's Bills (6-1) have all started well; Klint Kubiak's Raiders are 4-4. Jesse Minter's Ravens are 4-5, and Robert Saleh's Titans 1-7.
Coach of the Year history favours first-year coaches who turn a team around quickly. Vrabel won last season in his first year with New England; Brian Daboll won in his first year with the Giants in 2022. But it also favours dramatic improvements over strong starts by teams that were already good, which is why McCarthy and Brady, with teams that had winning records last season, are priced at only 2–4%.
Value and risk
At about 28%, Harbaugh is priced as a strong favourite, but one who still loses nearly three times in four. A trader who thinks the Giants will fade has an obvious alternative: Monken at about 15.5%, whose price is lower partly because the market doubts the Browns' playoff chances. If Cleveland keeps winning, that discount could disappear quickly. Johnson, at about 19.5%, is the safest of the contenders in one sense, since the Bears are close to certain to make the playoffs, but the hardest to justify on the historical pattern of turnarounds.
Whoever wins, the result will be known at the NFL Honors in early February, and the contracts settle on the official AP announcement, not on the voting totals released afterwards.
Until then, the market will keep moving with the standings, and the next eight weeks of games will decide whether Harbaugh's early lead holds up or becomes another midseason favourite that fades.
The award's history and the market agree on one thing: the next two months matter more than the first two.
Key points
- Favourite: John Harbaugh, about 28% on Kalshi, after taking the 4-13 Giants to 4-2-1.
- Chasers: Ben Johnson (19.5%), Todd Monken (15.5%) and Kyle Shanahan (13.5%).
- History: four of the last five winners led teams that had losing records the year before.
- Warning: last season's midseason favourite, Shane Steichen, lost to Mike Vrabel.
- Settlement: the AP award, announced at the NFL Honors before the Super Bowl.
FAQ
Who is favoured to win NFL Coach of the Year? John Harbaugh of the New York Giants, at about 28% on Kalshi on 8 November 2026.
Who won Coach of the Year last season? Mike Vrabel, who took New England from 4-13 to 14-3 in 2025.
What are Todd Monken's odds? About 15.5% on Kalshi, after taking Cleveland from 5-12 to 5-3.
Who votes for Coach of the Year? A panel of 50 media members for the Associated Press, after the regular season.
How does the contract settle? Each coach's contract pays $1 if he wins the AP award and nothing otherwise (how Kalshi works).
Prices change constantly; figures are as of the morning of 8 November 2026. Sources: ESPN; Associated Press; CBS Sports; Kalshi public market data. Not betting advice.
