NFL playoff picture at the midpoint: Bills, Jaguars and 49ers near-certain on Kalshi as the Ravens, Eagles and Chargers collapse
Halfway through the 2026 season, Kalshi makes Buffalo, Jacksonville and San Francisco about 95% to reach the playoffs. Baltimore has fallen from 86% in mid-October to 15%, Philadelphia from 65% to 5%, and the Chargers, 11-6 last year, are 0-7. Every team’s playoff odds, the biggest risers and fallers since October, and what to watch in Week 10.
In this article
Halfway through the 2026 NFL season, the playoff picture has split in two. On the morning of Sunday 8 November 2026, before Week 10's Sunday games, Kalshi priced three teams at about 95% to make the playoffs: the Buffalo Bills (6-1), the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) and the San Francisco 49ers (6-1). At the other end, three teams that were expected to contend have fallen apart.
The Baltimore Ravens were about 86% to make the playoffs in mid-October; they are now about 15%. The Philadelphia Eagles started October at about 65% and are now at about 5%. The Los Angeles Chargers, 11-6 last season, are 0-7.
The playoff odds, team by team
Source: Kalshi market data: KXNFLPLAYOFF-27; records from ESPN
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| Value | |
|---|---|
| Buffalo (6-1) | 95.0% |
| Jacksonville (6-2) | 95.0% |
| San Francisco (6-1) | 95.0% |
| Denver (6-2) | 86.0% |
| Chicago (6-2) | 85.5% |
| Kansas City (5-2) | 84.5% |
| Cincinnati (5-2) | 84.0% |
| New England (5-3) | 76.5% |
| Detroit (5-2) | 76.0% |
| Minnesota (6-1) | 76.0% |
| Pittsburgh (6-2) | 75.0% |
| NY Giants (4-2-1) | 58.5% |
| Team | Record | Playoff chance |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle | 4-4 | 53.5% |
| LA Rams | 4-4 | 51.5% |
| Green Bay | 5-3 | 50.5% |
| Tampa Bay | 3-5 | 35.5% |
| Carolina | 3-4 | 32.5% |
| Cleveland | 5-3 | 31.5% |
| Houston | 2-5 | 31.5% |
| Dallas | 3-5 | 30% |
| Atlanta | 3-5 | 26.5% |
| Washington | 2-4-1 | 17.5% |
| Las Vegas | 4-4 | 17% |
| Baltimore | 4-5 | 15.5% |
| New Orleans | 2-5 | 14.5% |
| Philadelphia | 2-6 | 5% |
| Arizona | 3-5 | 4.5% |
| NY Jets | 2-6 | 3% |
| Indianapolis | 2-6 | 2.5% |
| LA Chargers | 0-7 | 2% |
| Miami | 1-6 | 1.5% |
| Tennessee | 1-7 | 1.5% |
Kalshi midpoints on the morning of 8 November 2026; records from ESPN before Week 10's Sunday games.
A few prices stand out against the standings. Cleveland, at 5-3 and in the AFC's eighth spot, is priced at only about 31.5%, the same as Houston at 2-5. Minnesota, at 6-1, is about 76%, below 5-2 teams such as Kansas City and Cincinnati. The market is pricing the schedule ahead and each team's underlying strength as much as the record so far.
The biggest movers since October
Source: Kalshi market data: KXNFLPLAYOFF-27, daily closes (ET)
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| New England | Chicago | Baltimore | Philadelphia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct | 41% | 54% | 81% | 65% |
| 8 Oct | 62% | 64% | 81% | 38% |
| 15 Oct | 72% | 54% | 86% | 27% |
| 22 Oct | 65% | 72% | 75% | 15% |
| 29 Oct | 71% | 73% | 63% | 10% |
| 5 Nov | 77% | 86% | 15% | 6% |
| 7 Nov | 76% | 86% | 15% | 6% |
Risers. New England has gained the most since 1 October, from about 41% to 76%. Chicago is up from 54% to 86%, Jacksonville from 68% to 95%, Green Bay from 31% to 51% and Denver from 66% to 86%.
Fallers. Baltimore has lost the most: about 81% on 1 October, 86% in mid-October, and 15% now. The Ravens, 4-5 under first-year coach Jesse Minter, lost 36-10 at Buffalo last Sunday and 33-10 at home to Jacksonville on Thursday night. Philadelphia has fallen from 65% to 5%, Indianapolis from 36% to 2.5% and New Orleans from 48% to 14.5%. The Chargers, 0-7 under Jim Harbaugh, were already down to 16% on 1 October; they are now at 2%.
If the season ended today
| Seed | AFC | NFC |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo (6-1) | San Francisco (6-1) |
| 2 | Denver (6-2) | Minnesota (6-1) |
| 3 | Jacksonville (6-2) | NY Giants (4-2-1) |
| 4 | Pittsburgh (6-2) | Carolina (3-4) |
| 5 | Kansas City (5-2) | Chicago (6-2) |
| 6 | Cincinnati (5-2) | Detroit (5-2) |
| 7 | New England (5-3) | Green Bay (5-3) |
Seeds from ESPN's standings before Week 10's Sunday games.
The NFC's division races are where the standings and the market disagree most. Carolina would host a playoff game as the NFC South leader at 3-4, but Kalshi gives it only about a one-in-three chance of making the playoffs. The New York Giants, in John Harbaugh's first season, lead the NFC East at 4-2-1 after a 4-13 season in 2025; the market makes them about 58.5%.
Turnarounds and collapses
The biggest stories of the first half are teams that have reversed their 2025 seasons. The Giants went 4-13 last year and lead their division. The Cleveland Browns, 5-12 last season, are 5-3 under first-year coach Todd Monken. The Chicago Bears, 11-6 a year ago, have kept climbing and are 6-2 in Ben Johnson's second season.
In the other direction, Philadelphia and the Chargers were both 11-6 in 2025. Houston was 12-5 and is 2-5. Denver, 14-3 last season, and New England, also 14-3, have picked up where they left off.
What to watch in Week 10
The market is most sensitive where teams are close to 50%: Seattle, the Rams and Green Bay are all priced between 50% and 54%, and a single result can move them 10 points or more. For teams near the top or the bottom, one game changes little. Buffalo at 95% would still be a heavy favourite after a loss; Philadelphia at 5% needs a long winning run before the market takes it seriously again.
For context on how much a market price at this stage of the season can be trusted, last season's award markets are a cautionary tale: how the markets priced the 2025 NFL awards. The full playoff board and division odds: NFL playoff odds and Kalshi's playoff qualifiers market.
How the playoff field works
Fourteen teams make the NFL playoffs, seven from each conference: the four division winners and three wild cards. The top seed in each conference gets a bye; the division winners are seeded 1 to 4 by record, whatever their record, and the wild cards 5 to 7.
That structure explains some of the market's prices. The NFC South leader will host a playoff game even with a losing record, which is why Carolina, at 3-4, is the No. 4 seed today, and why the whole division's playoff chances are priced together: Tampa Bay (35.5%), Carolina (32.5%), Atlanta (26.5%) and New Orleans (14.5%) add up to about 1.1, roughly one team.
The market as a whole passes the same test. The midpoints of all 32 teams add up to about 14.1, almost exactly the 14 places available.
The divisions to watch
NFC North. The deepest division in football: Minnesota (6-1), Chicago (6-2), Detroit (5-2) and Green Bay (5-3) are all priced at 50% or more, and their four prices add up to about 2.9. The market expects close to three playoff teams from one division, which means at least one strong team will finish as a wild card and possibly one at home.
AFC North. Pittsburgh (6-2) and Cincinnati (5-2) are priced at 75% and 84%. Cleveland (5-3) is only about 31.5%, and Baltimore (4-5) 15.5%. The Ravens' collapse has turned a four-team race into a two-team race, with the Browns as the market's sceptically priced third.
AFC West. Denver (6-2) and Kansas City (5-2) are both 84–86%. Las Vegas, 4-4, is only 17%, and the 0-7 Chargers about 2%.
NFC East. The weakest division at the top. The Giants lead at 4-2-1 and are priced at 58.5%; Dallas is 30%, Washington 17.5% and Philadelphia 5%.
Why records and prices differ
A team's record is only part of what the market prices. It also weighs the strength of the schedule still to come, the margin of past wins and losses, injuries and the structure of the division. Two teams with the same record can have very different chances: Cleveland and Las Vegas at 5-3 and 4-4 are priced at 31.5% and 17%, while Green Bay at 5-3 is about 50%.
That is also why a price can move without a game being played. A key injury, a trade or a change at quarterback can shift a team's playoff chances by several points between Sundays.
The second half of the season
Nine weeks remain in the regular season after this weekend. For teams priced between 30% and 70%, that is plenty of time for the market to move a long way in either direction.
The market's prices already account for each team's remaining schedule, which is why they can differ from a simple reading of the standings. Teams with easy finishes tend to be priced higher than their record suggests; teams with difficult ones, lower. As the Thanksgiving and December games arrive, the market will update quickly, one result at a time.
For bettors who prefer the season-long view to single games, the playoff qualifier contracts are a cleaner way to express it: one contract per team, settling in January, with prices that move each week as results come in. Their weakness is the same as any futures market's: money is tied up for two months, and a single injury can change a team's outlook overnight.
Thanksgiving week alone brings five games involving playoff contenders, including Bears–Lions and Chiefs–Bills, and each of them can move several teams' prices at once, not just the two teams on the field.
Key points
- Near-certain: Buffalo, Jacksonville and San Francisco, each about 95% on Kalshi.
- Collapse: Baltimore from 86% in mid-October to 15%; Philadelphia from 65% on 1 October to 5%.
- Winless: the Chargers are 0-7 after an 11-6 season in 2025; Kalshi gives them about 2%.
- Risers: New England (41% to 76%) and Chicago (54% to 86%) since 1 October.
- Coin flips: Seattle, the Rams and Green Bay, priced at 50–54%.
FAQ
Which NFL teams are most likely to make the playoffs? Buffalo, Jacksonville and San Francisco, each at about 95% on Kalshi on 8 November 2026.
What are the Eagles' playoff chances? About 5% on Kalshi, after a 2-6 start.
What are the Ravens' playoff chances? About 15%, down from 86% in mid-October.
Who leads the NFC East? The New York Giants, at 4-2-1, before Week 10's Sunday games.
How do playoff contracts settle? Each team's contract pays $1 if it qualifies for the playoffs and nothing otherwise (how Kalshi works).
Prices as of the morning of 8 November 2026; records and seeds from ESPN before Week 10's Sunday games. Sources: ESPN; Kalshi public market data. Not betting advice.
