XRP price prediction: what Kalshi and Polymarket say about November and the rest of 2026
XRP has fallen from $1.50 at the start of October to about $1.16. Prediction markets give it about a one-in-three chance of dropping below $1 in November, about a one-in-five chance of touching $1.40, and very little chance of revisiting $2 this year. The odds for this week, this month and the year, how the markets settle, and how to read them.
In this article
The prediction markets do not expect a quick XRP recovery. On the morning of Sunday 8 November 2026, with XRP trading at about $1.16, Polymarket priced a drop to $1.00 at some point in November at about 33% and a rise to $1.40 at about 21%. Kalshi priced XRP falling below $1.10 this month at about 72%.
For the full year, Kalshi priced XRP reaching $2.00 before the end of 2026 at only 12–15%. Here is what the markets say, how they work and how much weight to put on them.
XRP price prediction at a glance
Source: Kalshi market data: KXXRPD, KXXRPMAXY; Polymarket: “What price will XRP hit in November?”
How XRP got here
Source: Kalshi market data: KXXRPD daily markets, settlement values (CF Benchmarks XRPUSD Real-Time Index, 60-second average before 5 p.m. ET)
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| XRP | |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct | $1.50 |
| 4 Oct | $1.51 |
| 8 Oct | $1.38 |
| 14 Oct | $1.32 |
| 18 Oct | $1.26 |
| 21 Oct | $1.38 |
| 29 Oct | $1.24 |
| 31 Oct | $1.25 |
| 4 Nov | $1.30 |
| 7 Nov | $1.16 |
XRP settled at $1.50 on 1 October and hit its high for the month, $1.51, on 4 October. It then slid for most of the month, to a low of $1.24 on 29 October, and finished October at $1.25, down about 17%. A bounce to $1.30 on 4 November did not last: XRP was at $1.22 on 5 November, $1.18 on the 6th and $1.16 on the 7th.
XRP was not alone. Over October, Kalshi's daily settlement values show Bitcoin down about 8.5%, from $84,609 to $77,418, and Ethereum down about 17%, from $2,698 to $2,251. XRP's fall has been in line with Ethereum's and about twice Bitcoin's.
For longer context: XRP set a record above $3.60 in July 2025. The SEC's lawsuit against Ripple, which had hung over the token since 2020, ended in 2025, and US spot XRP exchange-traded funds began trading late that year. None of that has stopped this autumn's decline.
November: the touch markets
Source: Polymarket market data: “What price will XRP hit in November?”
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| Value | |
|---|---|
| ↑ $1.40 | 21.0% |
| ↑ $1.60 | 6.5% |
| ↑ $1.80 | 4.0% |
| ↑ $2.00 | 2.9% |
| ↓ $1.00 | 32.5% |
| ↓ $0.80 | 5.5% |
| ↓ $0.60 | 1.5% |
These are touch markets: each pays $1 if XRP reaches the level at any point before the end of November, even briefly. On Polymarket, the downside is priced more heavily than the upside: a drop to $1.00 at about 32.5%, against a rise to $1.40 at about 21%. A fall to $0.80 is about 5.5%; a rally to $2.00 about 3%.
Kalshi's monthly low market tells a similar story:
| XRP below… in November | Kalshi price |
|---|---|
| $1.10 | about 72% |
| $1.00 | about 31% |
| $0.90 | about 12% |
| $0.80 | about 4% |
Midpoint of bid and ask, morning of 8 November 2026. Source: Kalshi market data, KXXRPMINMON.
The two platforms agree almost exactly on the key level: a roughly one-in-three chance that XRP trades below $1 at some point this month.
This week: XRP on 13 November
Polymarket's daily markets ask where XRP will be at noon ET on a given day. For Friday 13 November, it priced:
| XRP above… at noon on 13 November | Price |
|---|---|
| $1.00 | 95% |
| $1.10 | 78% |
| $1.20 | 31.5% |
| $1.30 | 6% |
Polymarket, morning of 8 November 2026.
Reading the ladder, the market's central expectation for Friday is about $1.16, almost exactly where XRP is now, with about a 47% chance of finishing between $1.10 and $1.20 and about a 22% chance of finishing below $1.10.
The rest of 2026
Source: Kalshi market data: KXXRPMAXY, KXXRPMINY; Polymarket: “What price will XRP hit in 2026?”
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| Value | |
|---|---|
| Above $2.00 (Kalshi) | 13.5% |
| Above $2.50 (Kalshi) | 5.5% |
| Touches $2.60 (Polymarket) | 3.8% |
| Touches $5.00 (Polymarket) | 1.7% |
| Touches $1.00 (Polymarket) | 46.0% |
| Touches $0.80 (Polymarket) | 14.0% |
| Below $0.75 (Kalshi) | 10.0% |
| Below $0.50 (Kalshi) | 4.0% |
For the full year, both platforms see XRP more likely to test $1 than to get back to $2. Polymarket prices a touch of $1.00 before 2027 at about 46%, higher than the November-only price because there are seven more weeks for it to happen. Kalshi prices XRP getting above $2.00 at some point this year at about 13.5%, and above $2.50 at about 5.5%.
The two platforms differ somewhat on the upside. Polymarket's cheapest upper rung for 2026 is $2.60, at about 3.8%. Kalshi's $2.00 rung is not directly comparable, but a 13.5% chance of a 70% rally in seven weeks is a generous price by the standards of recent months. Its quotes are thin: the bid and ask were 12¢ and 15¢.
How to read these prices
Touch versus close. A touch market pays if the price reaches a level at any point, even for a minute. A daily "above" market pays only if the price is above the level at one specific moment. That is why the November touch market for $1.00 (about 33%) is far higher than the chance that XRP is below $1 at noon on Friday (about 5%).
Different price sources. Kalshi settles XRP markets on CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD Real-Time Index, averaged over 60 seconds. Polymarket's daily XRP markets settle on the Binance XRP/USDT one-minute candle that closes at noon ET. A brief move on one exchange can matter for one platform and not the other.
Thin markets. XRP's prediction markets are much smaller than Bitcoin's. In October, Kalshi's daily 5 p.m. XRP markets traded about 0.7 million contracts in total, against about 100 million for Bitcoin's. Spreads are wider and prices can be stale.
Long shots run rich. In our study of Kalshi's daily crypto markets in October, contracts priced at 3–10% five hours before settlement never won. That is a reason to treat cheap upside rungs, like $2.00 by year-end, with some suspicion: how accurate are Kalshi's daily crypto markets?
How each type of crypto market works and what it costs to trade: how to bet on crypto prices on Kalshi and Polymarket. The same analysis for other coins: Bitcoin price prediction and Solana price prediction.
The rule of two
There is a useful rule of thumb for comparing touch markets with closing-price markets. If a price moves randomly with no trend, the chance that it touches a level at some point before a deadline is roughly twice the chance that it finishes beyond that level at the deadline. The reason is that every path that ends below $1.00 must have touched $1.00, and about as many paths touch $1.00 and then bounce back above it.
The XRP markets roughly follow the rule. The chance that XRP is below $1.00 at noon on 13 November is about 5%; the touch market for $1.00 over the whole of November, which covers more than three weeks, is about 33%. Over a longer window the touch probability rises much faster than the closing probability, because there is more time for a brief dip. The rule is only an approximation, since crypto prices jump and trend, but it is a good sanity check: a touch price far more than double the matching closing price, or less than it, deserves a second look.
What the ladder says about volatility
The 13 November ladder also gives a rough sense of how much traders expect XRP to move in five days. They put about 22% on a finish below $1.10 and about 31.5% on a finish above $1.20, roughly 5% either side of today's price. That implies traders expect a typical move of something like 5–8% over the next week. For a coin that fell 17% in October and more than 6% in a single day on 5 November, that is not an extreme assumption.
What could move XRP
The markets price the outcome, not the reasons, but a few drivers are worth watching:
- Bitcoin. XRP has moved with the wider market this autumn. A recovery in Bitcoin would probably lift it; a further fall would make the $1.00 touch markets more likely to pay.
- Fund flows. US spot XRP funds give traditional investors a way in and out. Large inflows or outflows can move the price.
- Regulation. Crypto market-structure legislation in Congress has its own prediction markets: CLARITY Act odds.
- Brief spikes. Touch markets pay on a single print at the level, so short-lived spikes and dips matter more for them than for closing-price markets.
Trading tips
- Pick the right market for your view. If you think XRP will dip briefly but recover, a touch market fits. If you have a view on a specific day, use a daily market.
- Check the source. Kalshi and Polymarket settle on different price feeds; a gap of a fraction of a cent can decide a contract near the line.
- Use limit orders. XRP markets are thin, and taking the ask on a far rung can cost several cents in spread.
- Size small on long shots. The data says cheap crypto long shots tend to be overpriced.
How XRP compares with Bitcoin and Ethereum
The same markets exist for the two biggest coins, and the comparison is instructive. Kalshi's 5 p.m. markets for Bitcoin traded about 100 million contracts in October, against about 6 million for Ethereum and 0.7 million for XRP. That depth shows in the prices: Bitcoin's ladders had tight two-sided quotes on almost every day, XRP's on far fewer. For anyone trading XRP's markets, that means accepting wider spreads, and reading quoted prices as rougher estimates than Bitcoin's.
That said, thin markets cut both ways: a trader with a well-reasoned view can sometimes find stale quotes to trade against.
Either way, treat any single price as a snapshot: XRP's markets can reprice by several points within an hour when the coin moves.
Key points
- Price: XRP settled at about $1.16 at 5 p.m. ET on 7 November, down from $1.50 on 1 October.
- November: a drop to $1.00 is about 33% on Polymarket and 31% on Kalshi; a rise to $1.40 about 21%.
- This week: Polymarket's central expectation for noon on 13 November is about $1.16.
- 2026: about 46% for a touch of $1.00 on Polymarket; about 13.5% for a move above $2.00 on Kalshi.
- Caution: thin markets, different settlement sources and overpriced long shots.
FAQ
What is the XRP price prediction for November 2026? Prediction markets give XRP about a one-in-three chance of falling to $1.00 and about a one-in-five chance of touching $1.40 in November.
Will XRP reach $2 in 2026? Kalshi prices it at about 12–15%; Polymarket's lowest upper rung, $2.60, is about 3.8%.
Will XRP fall below $1? Both platforms put it at about 31–33% in November, and Polymarket at about 46% before the end of the year.
What price source settles XRP prediction markets? Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD Real-Time Index; Polymarket's daily markets use Binance's XRP/USDT one-minute candles.
Where can I follow the prices? On Kalshi's 2026 XRP high market, Polymarket's November market and Polymarket's 2026 market.
Prices change constantly; figures are as of the morning of 8 November 2026. Sources: Kalshi and Polymarket public market data and rules. Not investment advice.
