How the prediction markets priced the 2025 NFL awards: no midseason favourite won, and every winner led by January
We traced Kalshi’s markets on last season’s five big NFL awards, MVP, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year, from September 2025 to the NFL Honors. The winners were priced at an average of about 10% before the season; none of the five midseason favourites won; and all five winners were favourites by the end of the regular season.
In this article
If you are looking at NFL award odds at the midpoint of the season, last year's markets have a warning for you. We traced Kalshi's markets on the five headline awards of the 2025 season, MVP, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year, from the week before the season to the awards in February 2026.
At the end of October, the favourite in every one of the five markets went on to lose. By the end of the regular season in early January, the eventual winner was the favourite in all five.
Key findings
Source: Kalshi market data: KXNFLMVP-26, KXNFLOROTY-26, KXNFLDROTY-26, KXNFLCOTY-26, KXNFLCPOTY-26; our analysis
- Winners were long shots in September. Matthew Stafford (MVP) was priced at about 3%, Tetairoa McMillan (Offensive Rookie) at 7%, Carson Schwesinger (Defensive Rookie) at 4%, Mike Vrabel (Coach) at 13% and Christian McCaffrey (Comeback) at 24%.
- Midseason favourites all lost. On 31 October the favourites were Patrick Mahomes, Jaxson Dart, Abdul Carter, Shane Steichen and Dak Prescott. None won.
- The regular season's final weeks settled it. By 5 January 2026, after the last regular-season games, all five eventual winners led their markets, all of them at 64% or more.
- MVP was the money market. It traded about 30 million contracts, more than the other four combined.
The five awards at a glance
| Award | Winner | Price before season | Price on 31 Oct | Price on 5 Jan | Favourite for good from |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | Matthew Stafford | 3% | 5% | 64% | 4 Jan 2026 |
| Offensive Rookie | Tetairoa McMillan | 7% | 7% | 90% | 21 Dec 2025 |
| Defensive Rookie | Carson Schwesinger | 4% | 3% | 84% | 9 Nov 2025 |
| Coach of the Year | Mike Vrabel | 13% | 28% | 67% | 1 Jan 2026 |
| Comeback Player | Christian McCaffrey | 24% | 27% | 88% | 4 Dec 2025 |
Kalshi daily closes. "Favourite for good" is the first date from which the winner led every day until the market closed. Source: Kalshi public market data.
MVP: Stafford against Maye
Source: Kalshi market data: KXNFLMVP-26, daily closes
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| Matthew Stafford | Drake Maye | Josh Allen | Patrick Mahomes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Sep | 3% | 2% | 14% | 14% |
| 30 Sep | 5% | 2% | 47% | 13% |
| 31 Oct | 5% | 18% | 18% | 33% |
| 30 Nov | 45% | 37% | 6% | 2% |
| 15 Dec | 69% | 16% | 15% | 1% |
| 31 Dec | 28% | 71% | 1% | 1% |
| 5 Jan | 64% | 36% | 1% | 1% |
| 20 Jan | 82% | 16% | 1% | 1% |
| 4 Feb | 91% | 11% | 1% | 1% |
The MVP race was the most volatile of the five. Josh Allen led in September, reaching 47% at the end of the month. Patrick Mahomes led at the end of October at 33%. Then the race became a duel between two quarterbacks who had both been priced at 2–5% before the season.
Matthew Stafford went from 5% at the end of October to 45% at the end of November and 69% in mid-December. Drake Maye then overtook him, reaching 71% on 31 December, before the final week of the regular season swung it back: Stafford was at 64% on 5 January and climbed to 91% before the announcement. He won.
The swing on 31 December is the clearest warning in the data. With one week of the season left, the market made the eventual runner-up a 71% favourite. That is not a failure of calibration on its own, since 71% favourites lose about three times in ten, but it shows how much a single late result or narrative can move a market voted on by a panel of media members.
The rookies
Offensive Rookie of the Year started with Ashton Jeanty as the favourite at 27%. By the end of October, Jaxson Dart led at 44%. Tetairoa McMillan was 7% at both points, then rose to 40% at the end of November and 90% by early January. He became the favourite for good on 21 December.
Defensive Rookie of the Year had the most dramatic single move of any market. Abdul Carter was the favourite before the season at 38% and still at 44% at the end of October. Carson Schwesinger had briefly risen to 24% at the end of September, fell back to 3% by 31 October, and then jumped to 80% by the end of November. He led every day from 9 November onwards and won.
Coach of the Year
Source: Kalshi market data: KXNFLCOTY-26, daily closes
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| Mike Vrabel | Kyle Shanahan | Ben Johnson | Shane Steichen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Sep | 13% | 6% | 15% | 4% |
| 30 Sep | 4% | 8% | 6% | 18% |
| 31 Oct | 28% | 5% | 3% | 49% |
| 30 Nov | 54% | 5% | 32% | 3% |
| 15 Dec | 39% | 15% | 19% | 1% |
| 31 Dec | 39% | 41% | 5% | 1% |
| 5 Jan | 67% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 20 Jan | 80% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 4 Feb | 86% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
Mike Vrabel, in his first season with New England, was 13% before the season and fell to 4% at the end of September. Shane Steichen of Indianapolis led at the end of October at 49%. Vrabel overtook him in November and led at 54% at the end of the month, but Kyle Shanahan briefly passed him on 31 December at 41%. Vrabel led for good from 1 January and won at 86%. New England finished 14-3.
Comeback Player of the Year
The comeback market was the only one in which the preseason favourite won. Christian McCaffrey was priced at 24% in early September, narrowly ahead of Aidan Hutchinson (23%) and Dak Prescott (20%). Prescott led at the end of October (45%) and the end of November (57%), but McCaffrey overtook him in early December and was 88% by the end of the year. His lowest price all season was 20%.
What it means for this season's award markets
Kalshi's markets for the 2026 season are open. On 8 November 2026, the MVP market is led by Josh Allen at about 30%, the Coach of the Year market by John Harbaugh at about 28%, the Offensive Rookie market by Carnell Tate at about 21%, the Defensive Rookie market by Arvell Reese at about 29%, and the Comeback market by Patrick Mahomes at about 56%. Live MVP prices: Kalshi and Polymarket; the full MVP field: NFL MVP odds.
Last season's data suggests four lessons:
- A midseason favourite is a long way from a winner. In 2025, none of the five favourites at the end of October won. Most were not even close by January.
- The last month matters most. Four of the five winners became the favourite for good in December or January.
- Late swings are big. Maye's 71% on New Year's Eve and Shanahan's 41% the same day both collapsed within a week.
- Comeback awards are more stable. Narrative awards with an obvious candidate, like McCaffrey's, held their favourite all season.
For a trader, that argues for small positions in award markets now, and patience: the most information arrives in December and January, and prices can be much better or much worse by then.
Method
- Data: Kalshi's 2025 award markets (KXNFLMVP-26, KXNFLOROTY-26, KXNFLDROTY-26, KXNFLCOTY-26 and KXNFLCPOTY-26), read from the historical archive, for the seven or eight most-traded candidates in each, with daily candles from late August 2025 to the awards in February 2026.
- Prices: daily closes by the US Eastern date. "Before the season" is the close on 3 September 2025.
- Volume: total contracts traded across all candidates in each market.
- Limits: one season, five awards. The pattern in 2025 may not repeat, and award markets are thin compared with game markets.
Volume and depth
| Market | Contracts traded | Most-traded candidate |
|---|---|---|
| MVP | 30.0 million | Drake Maye (5.3 million) |
| Coach of the Year | 11.4 million | Mike Vrabel (2.5 million) |
| Offensive Rookie | 9.4 million | Tyler Shough (1.7 million) |
| Defensive Rookie | 2.1 million | Carson Schwesinger (0.7 million) |
| Comeback Player | 1.7 million | Christian McCaffrey (0.4 million) |
Source: Kalshi public market data, historical archive.
The MVP market was by far the deepest, and its most-traded name was the runner-up, Drake Maye, just ahead of Stafford at 5.2 million. In the offensive rookie market, the most-traded name was Tyler Shough, who briefly reached 30% at the end of December but did not win. Heavy trading follows the race's most volatile names, not necessarily its winners.
How often the lead changed
None of the five races was a wire-to-wire affair. In the MVP market alone, the favourite was Lamar Jackson before the season, Josh Allen at the end of September, Patrick Mahomes at the end of October, Stafford at the end of November and mid-December, Maye on New Year's Eve and Stafford again from 4 January. The Coach of the Year and Comeback Player markets also changed leaders several times, with the lead swapping between two or three candidates through November and December.
For traders, frequent lead changes are a feature rather than a bug. A market in which the favourite changes every few weeks offers chances to buy a candidate cheaply after a bad week, and to sell after a good one, without waiting for the final result.
Why the end of the season is so informative
The awards are voted on after the regular season, by media panels who watch the same games and read the same coverage as traders. By early January, almost all of the information voters will use is public: the final records, the season statistics and the narratives that have formed around each candidate. The market's prices at that point are effectively a forecast of a vote whose inputs are already known, which is why they were so accurate last season.
In November, by contrast, half the season is still to be played. A candidate's price has to account for injuries, slumps and late surges that have not happened yet, and the market cannot know which story voters will settle on.
Key points
- Winners: Stafford (MVP), McMillan (Offensive Rookie), Schwesinger (Defensive Rookie), Vrabel (Coach) and McCaffrey (Comeback).
- Before the season: the five winners were priced at an average of about 10%.
- Midseason: none of the five favourites on 31 October won.
- January: all five winners were favourites by 5 January 2026.
- Volume: about 54.5 million contracts across the five markets, 30 million on MVP.
FAQ
Who won the 2025 NFL MVP? Matthew Stafford, who was priced at about 3% on Kalshi before the season and 91% on the eve of the announcement.
Are NFL award odds accurate? By the end of the regular season, last year's markets picked all five winners. At midseason, they picked none.
When are NFL award favourites most reliable? In January, after the regular season ends. Last season, four of the five winners became favourites for good in December or January.
Who leads the 2026 NFL award markets? On 8 November 2026: Josh Allen (MVP), John Harbaugh (Coach), Carnell Tate (Offensive Rookie), Arvell Reese (Defensive Rookie) and Patrick Mahomes (Comeback) on Kalshi.
How do award contracts settle? Each candidate's contract pays $1 if that person wins the award and nothing otherwise (how Kalshi works).
Data from September 2025 to February 2026; current prices as of the morning of 8 November 2026. Sources: Kalshi public market data and historical archive. Not betting advice.
