NFL Thanksgiving games 2026: the schedule, the Black Friday game and how to trade them on Kalshi and Polymarket

Thanksgiving week has never had this much NFL. The 2026 schedule packs five games into three days, starting with a game on Thanksgiving Eve, Wednesday 25 November, and ending with the Black Friday game on 27 November. Several of them have big playoff stakes: on Kalshi, both Thanksgiving Day hosts and three of the visitors are better than even money to make the playoffs.

Here is the schedule, where each team stands as of 8 November 2026, and how to trade the games on Kalshi and Polymarket.

The schedule

Source: NFL schedule via ESPN.

The Lions and Cowboys host on Thanksgiving every year, a tradition that goes back to 1934 in Detroit and 1966 in Dallas. The night game rotates. The Black Friday game, streamed on Prime Video, has been part of the schedule since 2023. The Wednesday game is new, and, according to NBC, it is the first time the league has played on Thanksgiving Eve.

Where the teams stand

Bears at Lions. The early game is the best of the three on paper: two NFC North contenders at 6-2 and 5-2. Kalshi makes Chicago about 85% to make the playoffs and Detroit about 76%. Detroit beat Minnesota 19-15 last Sunday; Chicago won 34-17 in Seattle on Monday night.

Eagles at Cowboys. The rivalry game has unusual stakes this year: Philadelphia is 2-6 and priced at only about 5% to make the playoffs, after starting October at about 65%. Dallas is 3-5 and about 30%. The loser on Thanksgiving may be close to finished.

Chiefs at Bills. The night game is a likely playoff preview. Buffalo, 6-1, is about 95% to make the playoffs; Kansas City, 5-2, about 85%. The Bills beat Baltimore 36-10 last Sunday; the Chiefs lost 28-24 in Denver.

Packers at Rams. The Thanksgiving Eve game is a straight fight for an NFC wild card. Green Bay is 5-3 and the Rams 4-4, and Kalshi prices both at about 51%.

Broncos at Steelers. Black Friday brings two 6-2 teams. Denver, who beat Kansas City 28-24 last week, is about 86% to make the playoffs; Pittsburgh, under first-year coach Mike McCarthy, about 75%.

How to trade the games

Kalshi lists a market on the winner of every NFL game, along with markets on the point spread and the total points scored. They typically open about a week before the game: on 8 November, the markets for Week 11's games on 15 November were already listed. Expect the Thanksgiving week markets to appear around the weekend before.

Polymarket also lists NFL game markets, both on its global platform and on its US exchange.

A worked example. Suppose Kalshi's Bears–Lions market opens with Detroit at 58¢. Buying 100 Detroit contracts costs $58.00 plus a taker fee of 0.07 × 100 × 0.58 × 0.42 = $1.7052, rounded up to $1.71. If Detroit wins, you receive $100, a profit of $40.29. If Chicago wins, you lose $59.71.

Things to know before trading:

• Overtime counts. Game markets settle on the final result, including overtime.
• Ties. NFL games can end in a tie. Read the rules: a tie can settle both sides of a winner market No.
• Kick-off times. Thanksgiving Day games are at 1, 4:30 and 8:20 p.m. ET. Markets close when trading stops under each market's rules, which can be at or after kick-off.
• Short weeks. Every team playing on Thanksgiving Day or Black Friday played on the previous Sunday, so injury news arrives late. Prices can move sharply on Wednesday and Thursday morning.

What the playoff markets tell you

The playoff markets are a useful cross-check on game prices. A team at 95% to make the playoffs, like Buffalo, will barely move on a single loss. A team near 50%, like Green Bay or the Rams, can swing 10 to 15 points on one result. If you want to trade the stakes of a game rather than the game itself, the playoff markets are the place to do it: buying Green Bay to make the playoffs is a bet on the Thanksgiving Eve result and the rest of the season together.

Kalshi's full playoff board: NFL playoff odds and the market itself: Kalshi's playoff qualifiers. The midseason picture in more detail: the NFL playoff picture at the midpoint.

Tips for Thanksgiving trading

1. Use limit orders. Holiday games draw casual money, and spreads can widen when markets first open.
2. Size small. Three games in one day, plus Wednesday and Friday, makes it easy to overtrade. Fees are paid on every trade.
3. Hedge with the playoff markets. A position on Philadelphia to beat Dallas can be hedged with a position on Dallas to make the playoffs.
4. Watch the late news. On a short week, the last injury reports come out close to kick-off.

How NFL markets work on Kalshi, from game lines to futures: how to bet on the NFL on Kalshi.

How last year's Thanksgiving games traded

Last season's Thanksgiving week showed how much money these games attract. On Kalshi, the Packers' win at Detroit traded about 36 million contracts, the Cowboys' win over Kansas City about 49 million and the Bengals' win at Baltimore about 44 million. The Black Friday game, Chicago's win in Philadelphia, traded about 32 million. That is roughly 160 million contracts over two days.

Three of those four games were won by the road team, a reminder that the holiday hosts have no guarantee of an edge.

Overtime and ties

Regular-season NFL games that are level after four quarters go to a 10-minute overtime period. If the score is still level after overtime, the game ends in a tie. Ties are rare, but they happen, and they matter for any market that pays on one team winning. Before you trade, read how the specific contract settles a tie.

Planning around the holiday

Thanksgiving week is unusual for traders as well as teams. Markets for the three Thursday games are open at the same time, and the games run back to back from 1 p.m. to past midnight Eastern time. Plan your positions before the first kick-off, and avoid adding to a losing position just because another game is about to start.

Reading Thanksgiving prices

When the game markets open, compare them with what the season-long markets already imply. A team at 95% to make the playoffs, like Buffalo, is likely to be a solid favourite at home; a matchup between two teams near 50%, like Green Bay and the Rams, should open close to a coin flip, with some allowance for home field.

If a game market opens far from what those other prices suggest, there is usually a reason: an injury, a quarterback change or a short week for one side. Check the news before treating a price as a mistake.

The Eagles–Cowboys game is the hardest to price. Philadelphia's 2-6 record and 5% playoff chance say it is a poor team this year; its recent history says otherwise. Markets usually weigh the current season heavily, but rivalry games on a holiday attract a lot of money from fans of both teams, which can push prices around when markets first open.

Using the playoff markets before the game markets open

Until the Thanksgiving week game markets open, the playoff qualifier contracts are the main way to take a position on these teams. They are not a perfect substitute: a playoff contract pays only in January and depends on every remaining game, not just the holiday one. But they react to each result, and a Thanksgiving win or loss for a team near 50% can move its playoff price by 10 points or more.

For example, Green Bay and the Rams are both priced at about 51%. The winner on Thanksgiving Eve will probably move into the 60s; the loser into the 40s. A trader who expects one side to win can buy that team's playoff contract a few days before the game and sell it after, without waiting for the season to end. The risk is that the playoff price also reacts to everything else that happens that week, including other teams' results.

However you trade it, Thanksgiving week is a good test of discipline: plenty of games, plenty of noise, and a long weekend in which to regret a rushed position.

Key points

• Five games, three days: Packers–Rams (Wed), Bears–Lions, Eagles–Cowboys and Chiefs–Bills (Thu), Broncos–Steelers (Fri).
• Biggest stakes: Bears–Lions and Chiefs–Bills pair teams that Kalshi makes 76–95% to reach the playoffs.
• Collapse watch: Philadelphia, 2-6, is about 5% to make the playoffs; Dallas, 3-5, about 30%.
• Markets: Kalshi's game markets usually open about a week before kick-off.
• New: the first Thanksgiving Eve game, Packers at Rams on Netflix.

FAQ

What NFL games are on Thanksgiving 2026? Bears at Lions (1 p.m. ET, CBS), Eagles at Cowboys (4:30 p.m., Fox) and Chiefs at Bills (8:20 p.m., NBC), on Thursday 26 November.

What is the Black Friday game? Broncos at Steelers, 3 p.m. ET on Friday 27 November, on Prime Video.

Is there an NFL game on Thanksgiving Eve? Yes: Packers at Rams, 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday 25 November, on Netflix.

Can I bet on Thanksgiving games on Kalshi? Yes. Kalshi lists winner, spread and total markets for NFL games, usually about a week before kick-off.

Who is favoured in the Thanksgiving games? Game markets were not yet open on 8 November; Kalshi's playoff markets give the best guide to the teams' strength until they are.

Records as of 8 November 2026, before Week 10's Sunday games; prices as of the morning of 8 November. Sources: NFL schedule via ESPN; NBC; Kalshi market data. Not betting advice.