How to bet on crypto prices on Kalshi and Polymarket: daily ladders, 15-minute markets and yearly highs, explained

You can trade the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP on a prediction market without owning any of them. Kalshi and Polymarket both list markets that ask a simple question about a coin's price at a set time: will it be above a level, will it touch a level, or will it go up or down. Each contract pays $1 if the answer is yes and nothing if it is no.

The markets look alike, but they differ in the details that decide who gets paid: which price source settles them, at what moment, and whether the price must be above a level at a single instant or merely touch it once. This guide explains each type, with examples from this week's markets, as of 8 November 2026.

The four kinds of crypto price market

Market types as listed by Kalshi and Polymarket in November 2026.

The type changes the maths a lot. A coin that is at $1.16 today has a much better chance of touching $1.40 at some point this month than of being above $1.40 at noon on a particular day, because a touch market pays as soon as the level is reached even if the price falls back.

Price-at-a-time ladders

Kalshi's daily markets come as a ladder: dozens of contracts on the same moment, each with a different level. For Bitcoin's 5 p.m. ET market there are 80 rungs a day, $250 apart; for Ethereum and XRP there are 40 to 50. The price of each rung is the market's probability that the coin finishes above that level.

According to the contract rules, Kalshi settles these markets on the simple average of CF Benchmarks' real-time index over the 60 seconds before the deadline: the Bitcoin Real-Time Index for Bitcoin, the XRPUSD Real-Time Index for XRP. The rules warn that checking Google or Coinbase can guide a decision but is not the official value.

Polymarket's daily "above ___ on [date]" markets use a different source and time. Its XRP market for 13 November, for example, settles on the closing price of the Binance XRP/USDT one-minute candle that closes at 12:00 ET. Two markets on the "same" question can therefore settle differently by a fraction of a cent.

A worked example. On the morning of 8 November, Polymarket's market on XRP above various levels at noon on 13 November priced:

Polymarket, morning of 8 November 2026. Source: Polymarket public market data.

With XRP at about $1.16, the market put roughly a 47% chance on a finish between $1.10 and $1.20 (78% minus 31.5%). A trader who thinks XRP will recover to $1.20 or more could buy the $1.20 contract at 31.5¢; if it settles Yes, it pays $1, a profit of 68.5¢ per contract before fees.

Up-or-down markets

Kalshi's 15-minute markets ask whether a coin will finish a 15-minute window at least as high as it started. Each window shows a target price, the starting average, and the rules settle Yes if the 60-second CF Benchmarks average before the end is at least the average before the start. At 5:30 a.m. ET on 8 November, for example, XRP's target was $1.1589, and the Yes side traded at 37–39¢.

Polymarket's daily up-or-down markets compare two Binance one-minute closes 24 hours apart, at noon ET; if the two are exactly equal, the market resolves 50-50.

These are the fastest markets on either platform, and the hardest to beat. Over 15 minutes, the price is close to a coin flip, and fees take a bite out of every trade.

Touch markets

Touch, or one-touch, markets pay if the price reaches a level at any point before a deadline. Kalshi's versions include "How high will XRP get in 2026?" and "How low will XRP get in November?"; Polymarket's include "What price will XRP hit in November?" and "What price will XRP hit in 2026?".

On 8 November, Polymarket priced XRP touching $1.40 in November at about 21% and falling to $1.00 in November at about 33%. Kalshi's monthly market had below $1.10 at about 72% and below $1.00 at about 31%. Its yearly market put XRP above $2.00 at some point in 2026 at 12–15¢.

Touch markets need careful reading. Some measure the highest or lowest one-minute price on a single exchange; others use an index. A brief spike on one exchange can settle a touch market that a closing-price market would ignore.

Range markets

Range markets split the possible prices into bands, and exactly one band wins. They work like the temperature brackets on Kalshi's weather markets: the prices across all bands add up to roughly $1, and you can combine neighbouring bands to cover a wider range. They suit traders with a view on volatility rather than direction: buying the band around today's price is a bet that the coin stays quiet.

What the data says about these markets

We checked every Kalshi daily 5 p.m. market on Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP in October 2026. The middle of the ladder was well calibrated: contracts priced around 50% won about half the time. But cheap long shots were badly overpriced. Contracts priced 3–10% five hours before settlement never won in 110 tries, while near-certain rungs won slightly more often than their prices implied. The lesson: a 5¢ lottery ticket on a big intraday move is usually a donation.

Fees

Kalshi charges takers 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent. On a contract at 50¢ that is 1.75¢ per contract; at 5¢ or 95¢ it is about 0.33¢. Short-dated markets mean frequent trading, and frequent trading means frequent fees. Resting limit orders, which add liquidity rather than take it, cost less or nothing on many markets.

Polymarket's fees depend on the market and on whether you use its US exchange or its global platform. Before trading, check the fee shown on the order ticket. The details, side by side: Polymarket vs Kalshi fees.

Common mistakes

1. Confusing "above at" with "touch". A touch market can pay out on a spike that is gone a minute later. A closing-price market cannot.
2. Using the wrong price. Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks' index averaged over a minute; Polymarket on a Binance candle. Neither settles on the price in your wallet app.
3. Ignoring the time zone. Kalshi's deadlines are in Eastern time, which shifted from EDT to EST on 1 November. A 5 p.m. ET market now closes at 22:00 UTC, not 21:00.
4. Buying every long shot. Cheap far-away rungs look like value. In October, they were not.
5. Over-trading short windows. On 15-minute markets the fee is paid on every trade, and the price is close to a coin flip.

Is it legal?

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most US states, and its crypto price contracts are event contracts, not crypto trading: you never hold the coin. Polymarket offers a CFTC-regulated exchange to US users and a separate global platform. Where each is available: is Kalshi legal? and is Polymarket legal in the US? For Polymarket's crypto markets in more detail: Polymarket crypto markets.

A checklist before your first crypto trade

1. Name the market type. Is it a price at a moment, an up-or-down window, a touch or a range?
2. Find the settlement source and time. CF Benchmarks' index averaged over a minute, or a Binance candle at noon ET? Eastern time, and which day?
3. Check the spread. On thin rungs the gap between bid and ask can be larger than any edge you think you have.
4. Work out the fee. Multiply 0.07 by the price and by one minus the price; on Kalshi that is the taker fee per contract.
5. Decide your exit. You can sell before settlement at the bid. Know in advance at what price you would take a profit or cut a loss.

Five minutes on these steps is the cheapest risk management available in markets that settle as quickly as these.

Key points

• Four types: price at a time, up or down, touch and range. Read which one you are trading.
• Settlement: Kalshi uses a 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' index; Polymarket uses Binance one-minute candles at noon ET.
• This week: Polymarket put XRP above $1.20 at noon on 13 November at 31.5¢ and touching $1.40 in November at about 21%.
• Data: in October, Kalshi's daily crypto long shots priced 3–10% never won.
• Fees: Kalshi's taker fee peaks at 1.75¢ per contract at 50¢.

FAQ

Can you bet on Bitcoin's price on Kalshi? Yes. Kalshi lists hourly, daily, monthly and yearly Bitcoin markets, plus 15-minute up-or-down markets, all settling on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index.

What decides Polymarket's crypto markets? Most daily markets settle on the closing price of a Binance one-minute candle at noon ET, according to each market's rules.

What is a touch market? A market that pays if the price reaches a level at any point before the deadline, even briefly.

Do I need to own crypto to trade these markets? No. You trade contracts that pay $1 or $0 depending on the price; you never hold the coin.

Which crypto markets are most liquid? Bitcoin's, by far. On Kalshi, its daily 5 p.m. markets traded about 100 million contracts in October 2026.

Prices as of the morning of 8 November 2026. Sources: Kalshi and Polymarket market data and contract rules. Not investment advice.