OpenAI says it could be ready for an IPO in 2027; prediction markets put this year at under 2% and mid-2027 near a coin flip
OpenAI president Greg Brockman said this week the company could be ready to go public next year. Kalshi and Polymarket agree that 2026 is all but over: both price an IPO announcement or listing before 1 January at 1–2%. By mid-2027 the odds rise to 45–48%. What Brockman said, what the markets price, the valuation bets and how OpenAI compares with Anthropic.
In this article
OpenAI is not going public this year, and the prediction markets agree. At a Wall Street Journal tech conference in Napa, California, this week, OpenAI president Greg Brockman was asked whether the company would be ready to go public next year. "I think so," he replied, according to Reuters.
No date has been set. On the morning of Sunday 8 November 2026, Kalshi priced an official OpenAI IPO announcement before 1 January 2027 at about 1–2%, and Polymarket priced a listing by 31 December at about 1.5%. By the middle of next year, both markets are close to a coin flip.
What the markets price
Source: Kalshi market data: KXIPOOPENAI, midpoint of bid and ask
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Before 1 Dec 2026 | 0.5% |
| Before 1 Jan 2027 | 1.5% |
| Before 1 Feb | 10.0% |
| Before 1 Mar | 22.0% |
| Before 1 Apr | 27.0% |
| Before 1 May | 33.0% |
| Before 1 Jun | 47.5% |
Kalshi's market asks when OpenAI will officially announce an IPO. It prices that at about 10% before February, 22% before March and 47.5% before June 2027.
Polymarket's market asks when OpenAI will actually go public. It prices a listing by 31 December 2026 at about 1.5%, by 31 March 2027 at about 19.5% and by 30 June 2027 at about 45.5%. Its separate market on OpenAI's closing market cap on its first day, for listings in 2026, has "no IPO by 31 December" at about 97.6%.
| Market | Question | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | IPO announced before 1 January 2027 | 1–2% |
| Kalshi | IPO announced before 1 June 2027 | 46–49% |
| Polymarket | OpenAI IPO by 31 December 2026 | 1.5% |
| Polymarket | OpenAI IPO by 31 March 2027 | 19.5% |
| Polymarket | OpenAI IPO by 30 June 2027 | 45.5% |
Morning of 8 November 2026. Sources: Kalshi and Polymarket public market data.
Live prices: Kalshi's OpenAI IPO market and Polymarket's.
What Brockman said
Brockman's comments were brief. Asked whether OpenAI would be ready to list next year, he said he thought so. Dataconomy quoted him as also saying: "We've been very clear this year that we want to go public when we feel is the right time for us." He tied the company's readiness to growth in its business with corporate customers.
The Next Web, citing earlier reporting, said OpenAI had confidentially filed a draft prospectus with US regulators in June, and cited Bloomberg for a debut expected in 2027. Earlier in the year, reports had pointed to a listing as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026; those timelines have since moved.
Reports on OpenAI's latest funding round differ. Some describe a round of around $30 billion at a valuation of about $1.4 trillion; others report a smaller target and a lower valuation. Until the company publishes a prospectus, those figures are reports rather than disclosures.
The valuation bets
Polymarket also lists a market on what OpenAI's IPO valuation will be, whenever it lists. On 8 November it priced:
Source: Polymarket market data: “What will OpenAI’s IPO valuation be?” ($2.0T–$2.5T combines two buckets)
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Under $1 trillion | 26.0% |
| $1.0T–$1.25T | 10.0% |
| $1.25T–$1.5T | 20.0% |
| $1.5T–$1.75T | 18.5% |
| $1.75T–$2.0T | 13.5% |
| $2.0T–$2.5T | 7.3% |
| $2.5T or more | 6.0% |
The market's centre of gravity is between $1 trillion and $2 trillion, with about a quarter of the probability below $1 trillion. That would make OpenAI one of the most valuable companies ever to go public.
Kalshi lists a market on which bank will lead the offering. On 8 November, Goldman Sachs was priced at about 65% and Morgan Stanley at about 28%.
OpenAI and Anthropic
The comparison everyone is making is with Anthropic, which the Next Web, citing Reuters, said had also filed confidentially in June and is expected to list first. Polymarket prices an Anthropic IPO before 2027 at about 87%, and its market on the largest IPO of 2026 by market cap makes SpaceX the favourite at about 88.5%, with Anthropic at about 9.5% and OpenAI at under 1%.
In other words, the markets expect 2026 to be the year of SpaceX and Anthropic, and 2027 to be OpenAI's. Our earlier look at the Anthropic timeline: Anthropic IPO date, and its filing: Anthropic's S-1 and the IPO odds.
Why the timing is hard to call
- Filing is not listing. A confidential draft lets a company prepare quietly; it can wait months before making the filing public and setting a date.
- The structure is unusual. OpenAI converted its main business into a public benefit corporation controlled by its non-profit in 2025. How that structure is presented to public investors is one of the questions a prospectus will answer.
- Markets set the window. IPO timing depends on market conditions as much as on the company. A rough month for technology stocks can push a listing back by a quarter.
For traders, that makes the near-dated contracts the safest reads: an announcement this year is priced at a cent or two because there are only seven weeks left and no public filing. The 2027 contracts carry much more uncertainty.
How the contracts settle
Kalshi's contract settles on an official IPO announcement by OpenAI before each date, as defined in its rules. Polymarket's settles on the company going public by each date. The difference matters: an announcement can come weeks before the shares trade. Read the rules before trading either: how to read a prediction market's rules.
Reading the two curves together
Kalshi and Polymarket ask slightly different questions, and putting them side by side is informative. Kalshi's market settles on an official announcement; Polymarket's on the shares actually trading. An announcement normally comes first, so Kalshi's prices should sit a little above Polymarket's for similar dates, and they do:
| By roughly… | Kalshi: IPO announced | Polymarket: IPO completed |
|---|---|---|
| End of 2026 | 1–2% | 1.5% |
| End of the first quarter of 2027 | 22–27% | 19.5% |
| Middle of 2027 | 47.5% | 45.5% |
Kalshi's dates are 1 January, 1 March to 1 April and 1 June 2027; Polymarket's are 31 December, 31 March and 30 June. Morning of 8 November 2026.
The two curves are close to each other at every point, which suggests traders on both platforms share the same basic view: almost nothing this year, a modest chance in the first quarter of next year, and something close to a coin flip by mid-2027. Neither market treats Brockman's comment as a sign that a listing is imminent.
What has to happen before a listing
A US listing follows a set sequence, and each step would show up in the markets:
- A confidential draft. Companies can submit a draft registration statement to the SEC privately. OpenAI reportedly did so in June.
- A public filing. Under SEC rules, a company that files confidentially must make its registration statement public at least 15 days before it begins its roadshow, the meetings at which bankers market the shares to investors. A public S-1 would be the clearest signal, and would likely move both markets sharply.
- The roadshow and pricing. After the roadshow, the company and its banks set a price, and the shares begin trading the next day.
Because the public filing has to come at least two weeks before marketing begins, a listing in the next few weeks is close to impossible without a filing that has not yet appeared. That is one reason the 2026 contracts trade at a cent or two.
How traders can use these markets
The markets offer a way to take a view on timing without owning private shares, but they come with costs:
- Money is tied up for months. A June 2027 contract bought now pays out, if it pays at all, more than seven months from now.
- The rules matter. Kalshi's contract turns on what counts as an official announcement; Polymarket's on the listing itself. A delayed roadshow could pay one and not the other.
- Liquidity is thin at the far end. The near-dated contracts have traded heavily, more than 100,000 contracts each on Kalshi; the 2027 contracts much less.
For a trader who thinks OpenAI will move faster than the market expects, the first-quarter contracts are the natural place to look. For one who thinks it will slip beyond mid-2027, selling the June contracts is the mirror image.
What would move these prices
The near-term contracts are anchored by the calendar: with seven weeks left in 2026 and no public filing, they can only rise sharply on news that a filing is imminent. The 2027 contracts are more sensitive. Three kinds of news would move them:
- A public S-1. The single biggest signal. It would start the 15-day clock and make a listing within weeks plausible.
- Anthropic's listing. A successful Anthropic IPO would show that public investors have the appetite for a large AI company, and would probably lift OpenAI's 2027 contracts.
- Market conditions. A sharp fall in technology stocks would make an early-2027 listing less likely, whatever the company's readiness.
For now, the calendar does most of the work in the near-dated contracts, and the 2027 contracts are where traders' opinions actually differ. Watch the SEC's public filings database, not executives' conference comments, for the signal that matters.
Until then, the most useful thing the markets offer is a running estimate of the timeline that updates every time there is news, from a filing to a funding round to a comment like Brockman's.
Key points
- Brockman: asked whether OpenAI would be ready to go public next year, he said "I think so", according to Reuters.
- This year: Kalshi and Polymarket both price an OpenAI IPO before 2027 at about 1–2%.
- Mid-2027: an announcement before 1 June is about 47.5% on Kalshi; a listing by 30 June about 45.5% on Polymarket.
- Valuation: Polymarket's market centres on $1 trillion to $2 trillion.
- Order: the markets expect Anthropic to list first; SpaceX is the favourite for 2026's largest IPO.
FAQ
When will OpenAI go public? No date has been set. Prediction markets put a listing before 2027 at about 1.5% and by 30 June 2027 at about 45.5% on Polymarket.
Can I buy OpenAI stock? Not on a public exchange. OpenAI is privately held; prediction markets let you trade on the timing and valuation of a future IPO, not the shares.
What did Greg Brockman say about an OpenAI IPO? At a Wall Street Journal conference in Napa, California, he said he thought OpenAI would be ready to go public next year.
Will Anthropic or OpenAI go public first? The markets expect Anthropic: Polymarket prices an Anthropic IPO before 2027 at about 87%, against about 1.5% for OpenAI.
Which bank is favoured to lead OpenAI's IPO? Goldman Sachs, at about 65% on Kalshi, ahead of Morgan Stanley.
Prices as of the morning of 8 November 2026. Sources: Reuters (via The Next Web); Dataconomy; Kalshi and Polymarket public market data. Not investment advice.
