NFL Rookie of the Year odds: Carnell Tate leads the offense and Arvell Reese the defense, but neither is above 30%
Kalshi makes Titans receiver Carnell Tate the Offensive Rookie of the Year favourite at about 21% and Giants linebacker Arvell Reese the Defensive Rookie favourite at about 29%, with Jets edge rusher David Bailey close behind. The odds, the stats behind them, how the No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza fell out of the race, and why last year’s midseason favourites both lost.
In this article
Neither NFL rookie race has a clear leader at the midpoint. On the morning of Sunday 8 November 2026, Kalshi priced Carnell Tate of the Tennessee Titans as the favourite for Offensive Rookie of the Year at about 21%, and Arvell Reese of the New York Giants as the favourite for Defensive Rookie of the Year at about 29%.
Both leaders are former Ohio State team-mates who went in the top five of April's draft. And both markets are crowded: four offensive rookies and four defensive rookies are priced at 9% or more.
Offensive Rookie of the Year odds
Source: Kalshi market data: KXNFLOROTY-27
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| Value | |
|---|---|
| Carnell Tate (TEN) | 20.5% |
| Jonah Coleman (DEN) | 15.5% |
| Denzel Boston (CLE) | 12.5% |
| KC Concepcion (CLE) | 9.5% |
| Omar Cooper Jr. (NYJ) | 5.5% |
| Antonio Williams (WSH) | 5.5% |
| Jordyn Tyson (NO) | 5.5% |
| Fernando Mendoza (LV) | 4.5% |
| Player | Team | Pos. | Games | Key stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carnell Tate | Tennessee | WR | 7 | 34 catches, 413 yards, 1 TD |
| Jonah Coleman | Denver | RB | 4 | 134 rushing yards, 2 TD; 9 catches, 97 yards |
| Denzel Boston | Cleveland | WR | 8 | 26 catches, 409 yards, 3 TD |
| KC Concepcion | Cleveland | WR | 8 | 33 catches, 352 yards |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | NY Jets | WR | 4 | 12 catches, 248 yards, 2 TD |
| Antonio Williams | Washington | WR | 7 | 23 catches, 259 yards, 1 TD |
| Fernando Mendoza | Las Vegas | QB | 1 | 6 of 8 passing, 48 yards |
Season statistics from ESPN before Week 10's Sunday games.
Carnell Tate, the No. 4 pick, leads the rookie class in receiving yards among the top candidates, despite missing Week 8 with a shoulder injury, according to Fox Sports. Tennessee is 1-7, which limits his profile; voters have rewarded rookies on bad teams before, but usually when the numbers are overwhelming.
Jonah Coleman is the market's most interesting price. The Denver running back has played only four games, with 134 rushing yards, yet he is second at about 15.5%. The market is betting on his role in a 6-2 Broncos offence for the rest of the season rather than on what he has done so far.
Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion split the vote in Cleveland's 5-3 offence. Boston has the touchdowns and the yards per catch (15.7); Concepcion has more receptions. Two team-mates competing for the same award usually hurt each other.
Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman winner and No. 1 overall pick, is down to about 4.5%. He has appeared in one game for the Raiders, completing six of eight passes. Jeremiyah Love, the Arizona running back who was the preseason favourite, according to Sports Illustrated, has 268 rushing yards at 3.5 a carry and has dropped out of the market's top ten.
Sportsbooks see the race the same way. DraftKings odds reported by Fox Sports on 5 November had Tate at +350, Coleman and Boston at +600, Concepcion at +750 and Mendoza at +1500, implied chances of about 22%, 14%, 12% and 6%.
Defensive Rookie of the Year odds
Source: Kalshi market data: KXNFLDROTY-27
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| Value | |
|---|---|
| Arvell Reese (NYG) | 28.5% |
| David Bailey (NYJ) | 22.5% |
| Jacob Rodriguez (MIA) | 12.0% |
| Sonny Styles (WSH) | 11.5% |
| Gabe Jacas (NE) | 5.5% |
| Anthony Hill Jr. (TEN) | 2.5% |
| Caleb Downs (DAL) | 1.5% |
| Dillon Thieneman (CHI) | 1.5% |
| Player | Team | Pos. | Games | Key stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arvell Reese | NY Giants | LB | 7 | 56 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT, 4 passes defended |
| David Bailey | NY Jets | Edge | 7 | 35 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles |
| Jacob Rodriguez | Miami | LB | 7 | 69 tackles, 1 INT, 1 forced fumble |
| Sonny Styles | Washington | LB | 7 | 54 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT, 4 passes defended |
| Gabe Jacas | New England | LB | 8 | 24 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT |
| Caleb Downs | Dallas | S | 8 | 52 tackles, 1 sack, 3 forced fumbles |
Season statistics from ESPN before Week 10's Sunday games.
Arvell Reese, the No. 5 pick, leads on an all-round profile: tackles, a sack and a half, an interception and four passes defended for a Giants defence that is part of the turnaround story in New York.
David Bailey, taken No. 2 by the Jets, has the eye-catching numbers: 5.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles in seven games. Sacks have historically carried weight with voters. The difference between Bailey and Reese may come down to team context: the Jets are 2-6, the Giants 4-2-1.
Jacob Rodriguez has the most tackles of the top four, 69 for Miami, and Sonny Styles, Reese's former Ohio State team-mate and the No. 7 pick, has a similar stat line to Reese's for Washington.
Why last year's midseason favourites lost
In 2025, Kalshi's rookie markets changed completely in the second half. At the end of October, Jaxson Dart led the offensive market at about 44% and Abdul Carter the defensive market at about 44%. Both lost. Tetairoa McMillan won the offensive award after being priced at 7% at the end of October; Carson Schwesinger won the defensive award after being priced at about 3% on 31 October.
Across the five big NFL awards last season, none of the midseason favourites won. Our full study: how the markets priced the 2025 NFL awards. The same pattern applies to coaches: NFL Coach of the Year odds.
What to watch
- Tate's health. A healthy second half for the favourite would make him hard to catch; another absence would open the race.
- Coleman's workload. His price assumes a bigger role. If Denver keeps sharing carries, it should fall.
- Sacks and turnovers. Defensive voters reward big plays. Bailey needs only a few more sacks to pull clear.
- Team success. Rookies on winning teams get more attention in December. That favours Coleman, Boston, Concepcion and Reese.
Live prices: Kalshi's Offensive Rookie market and Defensive Rookie market. The MVP race: NFL MVP odds.
How the races have moved this season
Before Week 1, Kalshi's offensive market was led by Jadarian Price at about 18%, ahead of Jeremiyah Love at 16%, Carnell Tate at 13% and Fernando Mendoza at 12%. Love peaked at about 30% in early October and has since fallen to about 1%. Tate took the lead in October and has held it, between 20% and 27%. Coleman went from about 2% in September to 14–15% now.
The defensive market had a different preseason favourite: Rueben Bain Jr. at about 21%, with David Bailey at 19% and Reese and Caleb Downs at 15%. Bain is now priced close to zero, and Downs at about 1.5%. Jacob Rodriguez briefly led at about 35% in early October before falling back to 12%, while Reese and Bailey have swapped the lead several times.
| Award | Preseason favourite (9 Sep) | Price then | Price now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive Rookie | Jadarian Price | 18% | about 2% |
| Defensive Rookie | Rueben Bain Jr. | 21% | under 1% |
Kalshi daily closes and midpoints. Source: Kalshi market data.
Neither preseason favourite is close. That is in line with last season, when the eventual winners, Tetairoa McMillan and Carson Schwesinger, were priced at 7% and 4% before the season.
Which positions win
Recent winners show a pattern that helps explain the prices:
| Season | Offensive Rookie | Defensive Rookie |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Tetairoa McMillan (WR) | Carson Schwesinger (LB) |
| 2024 | Jayden Daniels (QB) | Jared Verse (Edge) |
| 2023 | C.J. Stroud (QB) | Will Anderson Jr. (Edge) |
| 2022 | Garrett Wilson (WR) | Sauce Gardner (CB) |
| 2021 | Ja'Marr Chase (WR) | Micah Parsons (LB) |
Source: Associated Press NFL awards.
Quarterbacks win the offensive award when they start and play well; otherwise receivers have dominated recently. With Mendoza having appeared in only one game, the offensive market is a receivers' race, plus Coleman. On defence, linebackers and edge rushers have won four of the last five, which fits a market led by a linebacker and an edge rusher.
What it would take for Mendoza
Fernando Mendoza's price, about 4.5%, assumes he gets a meaningful run as the Raiders' starter. Rookie quarterbacks who start and play well have a strong record in this award: Jayden Daniels in 2024 and C.J. Stroud in 2023 both won. But both started from Week 1. A quarterback who starts only the final third of the season would need exceptional numbers to beat receivers with full seasons of statistics, which is why the market has moved on from the No. 1 pick.
For the defensive award, the equivalent long shot is Caleb Downs of Dallas, a top preseason name at 15% who is now at about 1.5% despite 52 tackles and three forced fumbles. Safeties rarely win the award, and the Cowboys' 3-5 start has not helped his profile.
Both markets settle on the official AP announcements at the NFL Honors, so a late-season surge counts as much as a fast start.
Until then, expect both markets to keep moving with each week's box scores and injury reports, and to settle on clear favourites only in the last month of the season.
For now, the safest reading of both boards is that each award is a four-way race with a narrow leader.
Key points
- Offence: Carnell Tate leads at about 21% on Kalshi; Jonah Coleman (15.5%) and Denzel Boston (12.5%) follow.
- Defence: Arvell Reese leads at about 29%; David Bailey, with 5.5 sacks, is at about 22.5%.
- Fallen: the No. 1 pick, Fernando Mendoza, is about 4.5% after one appearance.
- History: both of last season's midseason favourites lost.
- Settlement: the AP awards, announced at the NFL Honors in February.
FAQ
Who is favoured to win Offensive Rookie of the Year? Carnell Tate of the Tennessee Titans, at about 21% on Kalshi on 8 November 2026.
Who is favoured to win Defensive Rookie of the Year? Arvell Reese of the New York Giants, at about 29%, ahead of the Jets' David Bailey at about 22.5%.
What are Fernando Mendoza's Rookie of the Year odds? About 4.5% on Kalshi, after one appearance for the Raiders.
Who won last season's rookie awards? Tetairoa McMillan (offence) and Carson Schwesinger (defence).
How do the contracts settle? Each player's contract pays $1 if he wins the AP award and nothing otherwise (how Kalshi works).
Prices change constantly; figures are as of the morning of 8 November 2026. Sources: ESPN; Fox Sports; Sports Illustrated; Kalshi public market data. Not betting advice.
