CFP rankings shake-up: Notre Dame beats No. 1 Miami, Ohio State and Kentucky fall, and Georgia becomes Kalshi’s 29% title favourite
Notre Dame beat No. 1 Miami 31-24 in South Bend, Oregon won at Ohio State and Tennessee routed Kentucky, three days before the second College Football Playoff rankings. What happened, how the top 12 of the first CFP rankings fared, and how Kalshi’s playoff and championship markets moved overnight.
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The second College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday will look very different from the first. On Saturday 7 November 2026, No. 11 Notre Dame beat No. 1 Miami 31-24 in South Bend, handing the Hurricanes their first loss. No. 12 Ohio State lost 41-28 at home to Oregon, and No. 6 Kentucky lost 34-6 at Tennessee.
The prediction markets moved fast. By Sunday morning, Kalshi had Georgia as the national championship favourite at about 29%, Notre Dame up to about 19%, and Ohio State's chance of making the playoff down from about 51% to 14%.
How the first CFP top 12 fared
| CFP rank (3 Nov) | Team | Saturday's result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (8-0) | Lost 31-24 at No. 11 Notre Dame |
| 2 | Georgia (7-1) | Won 42-7 at No. 10 Ole Miss |
| 3 | Utah (8-0) | Beat No. 9 BYU 28-20 |
| 4 | Indiana (8-1) | — |
| 5 | Alabama (6-2) | Won 31-13 at No. 14 LSU |
| 6 | Kentucky (7-1) | Lost 34-6 at No. 13 Tennessee |
| 7 | Texas (6-2) | Won 34-20 at Missouri |
| 8 | UCLA (8-0) | Won 34-20 at Minnesota |
| 9 | BYU (7-1) | Lost 28-20 at No. 3 Utah |
| 10 | Ole Miss (6-2) | Lost 42-7 to No. 2 Georgia |
| 11 | Notre Dame (7-1) | Beat No. 1 Miami 31-24 |
| 12 | Ohio State (6-2) | Lost 41-28 to Oregon |
Rankings: College Football Playoff committee, 3 November 2026. Results: ESPN.
Five of the committee's top 12 lost. Four of those defeats came against teams ranked in or just outside the top 12, which means the committee will have to rearrange its order rather than simply drop the losers.
Notre Dame 31, Miami 24
Notre Dame led 17-3 at half-time and 24-3 in the third quarter. CJ Carr threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns. Miami's Darian Mensah threw three second-half touchdown passes to bring the Hurricanes back within a score, and Miami had a final chance on fourth down in the end zone. The pass was ruled incomplete after Notre Dame's Luke Talich knocked the ball away, and the Irish ran out the clock. Miami coach Mario Cristobal said afterwards he was "beyond upset" about the ruling.
The win settled a score. Miami beat Notre Dame 27-24 in last season's opener, a result that helped keep the Irish out of the 2025 playoff. This time, it puts them firmly in the field.
How the markets moved
Source: Kalshi market data: KXNCAAF-27, last price and the price a day earlier
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Georgia (+5) | 29% |
| Notre Dame (+3) | 19% |
| Alabama (+6) | 11% |
| Texas (+2) | 10% |
| Miami (0) | 9% |
| Indiana (−1) | 8% |
| Utah (+1) | 4% |
| UCLA (+1) | 4% |
| LSU (−7) | 2% |
Polymarket's national championship market agreed closely: Georgia at about 29%, Notre Dame 18%, Miami and Alabama about 10% each, Texas 8% and Indiana 7%.
The bigger moves were in the market on which teams make the 12-team playoff:
| Team | Playoff chance, Saturday morning | Sunday morning |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 65% | 92.5% |
| Notre Dame | 81% | 93.5% |
| Utah | 68% | 83.5% |
| Texas | 54% | 72.5% |
| UCLA | 62% | 75.5% |
| Tennessee | 30% | 46.5% |
| Oregon | 10% | 27.5% |
| Ole Miss | 56% | 35% |
| LSU | 59% | 25.5% |
| BYU | 34% | 21% |
| Ohio State | 51% | 13.5% |
Kalshi market data: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26, last price a day earlier and midpoint of bid and ask on Sunday morning.
Georgia is now about 99% to make the field and about 39% to be the No. 1 seed, up from 29%. Miami's chance of the top seed fell from about 25% to about 6.5%, but the Hurricanes are still about 93% to make the playoff.
What happens next
The committee's second rankings come out on Tuesday 10 November, the second of six. The 12-team field is set on Sunday 6 December, after the conference championship games. Ranking day can move the markets as much as a game: in the 12-team format, the line between No. 12 and No. 13 decides who plays on and who goes to a bowl.
Last season is a reminder that ranking day is not the end of the story. Indiana, the eventual champion, was priced at about 16% at this stage last year, behind Ohio State; Miami, the runner-up, was at 1%. Our full study of how the markets priced last season's playoff: how the markets priced the 2025–26 College Football Playoff. The full board and how the playoff works: College Football Playoff odds.
The rest of the top 12
Not everyone at the top stumbled. Utah beat No. 9 BYU 28-20 to stay unbeaten at 9-0, and UCLA won 34-20 at Minnesota to move to 9-0 as well. Georgia won 42-7 at Ole Miss, Alabama won 31-13 at LSU, and Texas won 34-20 at Missouri. Those five results explain most of the market's gains: Alabama's playoff chance jumped by more than 27 points, Utah's by about 15 and Texas's and UCLA's by about 13–18 each.
Indiana, No. 4 in the first rankings and last season's champion, did not appear among Saturday's results we checked; its prices barely moved.
Reading the playoff market
Kalshi's playoff-qualifier market lists 60 teams. On Sunday morning, the midpoints of all 60 added up to about 12.3, just above the 12 places in the field. That is what a coherent market should look like: the probabilities sum to the number of teams that will get in, with a little extra from the bid–ask spreads.
It also gives a useful way to read the board. Georgia, Notre Dame, Miami, Alabama, Indiana and Utah are each priced at 83% or more, so the market expects about five or six of them to make it. Behind them, UCLA and Texas are in the 70s, and a cluster of teams between 20% and 60%, from Boise State and Wake Forest to Tennessee, Ole Miss and Oregon, are competing for the last few places. In a 12-team field with automatic bids for conference champions, a team like Boise State, priced at about 58.5%, can be in contention without being anywhere near the top of the rankings.
What the committee looks at
The selection committee does not simply follow the polls. Its protocol asks members to consider strength of schedule, head-to-head results, results against common opponents and conference championships, alongside won-lost records. That is why a two-loss team with strong wins can rank above an unbeaten team with a weak schedule, and why Tuesday's order is hard to predict exactly even after a weekend like this one.
For traders, the practical point is that ranking day is a separate source of volatility. Teams near the edge of the field, such as Tennessee at about 46.5% or Ole Miss at about 35%, can move several points on the committee's order alone.
What to watch this week
- Where Miami lands. A one-loss Miami that lost to a top-12 team should stay comfortably in the field; the question is seeding.
- Notre Dame's jump. The Irish were No. 11; a win over the No. 1 team should move them well up.
- Ohio State's fall. At 6-3, the Buckeyes need help, and the market's 14% says so.
- The unbeatens. Utah and UCLA are both 9-0. How the committee ranks them against one-loss SEC teams will shape the bracket.
The Notre Dame question
Notre Dame's place in the playoff picture has an extra dimension because it is not in a conference. Without a conference championship game, the Irish cannot win an automatic bid as a conference champion, so their route into the field is through the committee's rankings, and their final weeks of the regular season are their last chance to impress.
Saturday's result changes that calculation. A one-loss Notre Dame with a win over the team that was No. 1 is the kind of résumé the committee has rewarded in the past. Kalshi's playoff market, at about 93.5%, prices the Irish as close to certain to be in the field, and the championship market's 19% makes them the second favourite overall. Last season, a 27-24 loss to Miami in the first week helped keep them out; this season, a 31-24 win over the same opponent may define their place in the bracket.
For Miami, the loss is less damaging than it looks. The Hurricanes are still about 93% to make the playoff and remain in contention for an ACC title, which would very likely come with an automatic bid. What they have lost is the inside track to the top seed.
Prices on Tuesday evening, after the second rankings, will show how much of Saturday's reshuffle the committee shares with the market.
With four weeks of regular-season games and the conference championships still to come, a lot can change before 6 December, and last season's playoff showed how far a team can travel from a low price in November.
Key points
- Upset: No. 11 Notre Dame beat No. 1 Miami 31-24; CJ Carr threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns.
- Also lost: Ohio State (to Oregon, 41-28), Kentucky (at Tennessee, 34-6), BYU (at Utah) and Ole Miss (to Georgia).
- Title odds: Georgia about 29% on Kalshi, Notre Dame 19%, Alabama 11%, Texas 10%, Miami 9%, Indiana 8%.
- Playoff odds: Ohio State fell from about 51% to 14%; Alabama rose from 65% to 92.5%.
- Next: second CFP rankings on Tuesday 10 November; field set on 6 December.
FAQ
When are the next CFP rankings? Tuesday 10 November 2026, the second of six weekly releases.
Who won Notre Dame vs Miami? Notre Dame, 31-24, on 7 November 2026 in South Bend.
Who is the favourite to win the national championship? Georgia, at about 29% on Kalshi and Polymarket on 8 November 2026.
Is Ohio State out of the playoff race? Not mathematically, but Kalshi's market fell to about 14% after the loss to Oregon.
When is the College Football Playoff field announced? Sunday 6 December 2026.
Prices as of the morning of 8 November 2026. Sources: College Football Playoff; ESPN; CBS Miami; NCAA.com; Chicago Sun-Times; Kalshi and Polymarket public market data. Not betting advice.
