How accurate are Kalshi’s daily Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP price markets? We checked every 5 p.m. ladder in October
We checked 93 of Kalshi’s daily 5 p.m. price markets on Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP from October 2026, using prices five hours before settlement. The middle of the ladder was well calibrated, but long shots were badly overpriced: contracts at 3–10% won none of 110 times, while favourites at 80% or more won more often than their prices said. The data, the method and what it means for crypto traders.
In this article
Kalshi's daily crypto markets get the middle right and the edges wrong. We looked at every daily 5 p.m. ET price market on Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP that Kalshi listed in October 2026, 93 markets in all, and compared the prices five hours before settlement with what actually happened.
Contracts priced between 20% and 80% won almost exactly as often as their prices said. But contracts priced as long shots won far less often than their prices implied, and contracts priced as near-certainties won more often. It is the favourite–long-shot bias, one of the oldest patterns in betting markets, showing up clearly in one of the newest.
Key findings
Source: Kalshi market data: KXBTCD, KXETHD, KXXRPD, hourly candles; our analysis
- The middle is calibrated. Contracts priced 40–60% won 50% of the time; those at 20–40% won 28% against an average price of 29.5%; those at 60–80% won 73% against 71%.
- Long shots are overpriced. The 110 contracts priced 3–10% (average 5.4%) won none of the time. The 43 priced 10–20% (average 14.4%) won once.
- Favourites are underpriced. Contracts at 80–90% won 91% of the time against an average price of 86%; those at 90–97% won 98% against 95%.
- The forecast is tight. The price ladder's midpoint at noon missed the 5 p.m. Bitcoin settlement by a median of 0.36%.
How the markets work
Every day, Kalshi lists a market on where each coin will be at 5 p.m. Eastern time. It comes as a ladder of contracts, each asking whether the price will be above a given level. For Bitcoin in October there were 80 rungs a day, $250 apart; Ethereum and XRP had 40 to 50.
The rules settle each market on the simple average of CF Benchmarks' real-time index over the 60 seconds before 5 p.m., not on any single exchange's price. That detail matters: the price on Coinbase or a phone app at 5:00 p.m. can differ slightly from the settlement value.
Here is what the Bitcoin ladder looked like at noon on 15 October, five hours before settlement:
| Bitcoin at 5 p.m. above… | Bid | Ask | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| $81,500 | 86¢ | 87¢ | Yes |
| $81,750 | 79¢ | 80¢ | Yes |
| $82,000 | 68¢ | 69¢ | No |
| $82,250 | 55¢ | 56¢ | No |
| $82,500 | 41¢ | 42¢ | No |
| $82,750 | 27¢ | 28¢ | No |
Source: Kalshi market data, KXBTCD-26OCT1517.
The market's midpoint was about $82,350. Bitcoin settled at $81,977.56, so the $82,000 rung, priced at 68–69¢, lost by $22. Days like that are the reason a 68% contract loses about a third of the time.
Calibration
Source: Kalshi market data; our analysis. Contracts with a two-sided quote and a spread of 10¢ or less.
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| 3–10% | 0.0% |
| 10–20% | 2.3% |
| 20–40% | 28.0% |
| 40–60% | 50.0% |
| 60–80% | 73.2% |
| 80–90% | 90.9% |
| 90–97% | 97.6% |
| Noon price | Contracts | Won | Average price | Average spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3–10% | 110 | 0% | 5.4% | 2.3¢ |
| 10–20% | 43 | 2.3% | 14.4% | 1.7¢ |
| 20–40% | 50 | 28.0% | 29.5% | 1.6¢ |
| 40–60% | 40 | 50.0% | 49.7% | 1.3¢ |
| 60–80% | 56 | 73.2% | 71.4% | 1.5¢ |
| 80–90% | 44 | 90.9% | 85.9% | 1.6¢ |
| 90–97% | 123 | 97.6% | 95.0% | 3.4¢ |
Midpoint of the bid and ask at the hourly close at 16:00 UTC (12 p.m. ET). Source: Kalshi public market data.
The pattern is symmetrical. On a ladder, a long-shot "above $X" contract at 5% and a near-certain "above $Y" contract at 95% are two ends of the same distribution. The market spread its probability a little too widely: it gave too much weight to big moves in the last five hours, and too little to the price staying close to where it was at noon.
In money terms the gap is meaningful. Buying every contract priced 3–10% would have cost about 5.4¢ each and returned nothing. Selling them, or equivalently buying the opposite "No" side at about 94.6¢, would have returned $1 every time, a gain of about 5.4¢ per contract before fees. At these prices, the Kalshi taker fee of 0.07 × price × (1 − price) is about 0.4¢, so the edge survived it.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP compared
| Coin | Markets with usable quotes at noon | Contracts | Median miss of the noon midpoint | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 30 | 285 | 0.36% | 100.3 million |
| Ethereum | 31 | 89 | 0.48% | 5.9 million |
| XRP | 26 | 92 | 0.59% | 0.7 million |
"Median miss" compares the price level at which the noon ladder crossed 50% with the 5 p.m. settlement value. XRP's figure covers the 18 days on which the noon ladder had quotes on both sides of 50%. Source: Kalshi public market data; our analysis.
Bitcoin dominates. Its 5 p.m. markets alone traded about 100 million contracts in October, more than 15 times Ethereum's and more than 100 times XRP's. That depth shows in the quotes: Bitcoin's ladder had tight two-sided prices on every day but one.
Ethereum and XRP are thinner, and their ladders often had only a handful of rungs with real quotes at noon. Their forecasts were still close, missing the settlement by about half a percent, but traders should expect wider spreads and less room to trade size.
October's price moves
All three coins fell during the month. Bitcoin's 5 p.m. settlement went from $84,609 on 1 October to $77,418 on 31 October, with a high of $85,818 on the 4th and a low of $76,772 on the 30th. Ethereum fell from $2,698 to $2,251, and XRP from $1.50 to $1.25.
A falling month is a useful test, because it is when traders might be expected to overprice sharp drops. The calibration table suggests they priced big moves in both directions too generously, not just on the downside.
What it means for traders
- Be wary of cheap lottery tickets. A 5¢ contract on a big move in the last few hours of the day looks attractive because it pays 20 to 1. In October, those contracts did not pay once.
- The middle of the ladder is efficient. Contracts near 50% were priced almost exactly right. There is no free money in guessing direction.
- Spreads matter more than you think. The average spread on the most likely rungs was 1–2¢, but on thin coins and far rungs it can be much wider. Use limit orders.
- Know the settlement rule. The CF Benchmarks average over the last minute, not the exchange price you see, decides the outcome.
How these markets work, how to place a trade and what the fees cost: how to bet on crypto prices on Kalshi and Polymarket. The Bitcoin outlook from the yearly markets: Bitcoin price prediction.
Method
- Data: every Kalshi daily Bitcoin (KXBTCD), Ethereum (KXETHD) and XRP (KXXRPD) market settling at 5 p.m. ET from 1 to 31 October 2026, 93 markets and 4,901 contracts.
- Price: the midpoint of the best bid and ask at the hourly close at 16:00 UTC, five hours before settlement. We kept only contracts with a bid above zero, a spread of 10¢ or less and a midpoint between 3% and 97%, leaving 466. Without the spread filter, empty order books with no bid and a 99¢ ask would look like 50% contracts.
- Results: each contract's settlement as published by Kalshi.
- Limits: one month, in which all three coins fell. Long-shot overpricing may be larger or smaller in other conditions. The 3–10% band's zero wins over 110 contracts is strong evidence that those contracts were overpriced, but it does not mean the true chance was zero.
Four hours later
We repeated the analysis using prices at 4 p.m. ET, one hour before settlement. Fewer contracts qualify, because by then most rungs are priced close to 0 or 100, but the pattern at the edges held:
| Price at 4 p.m. | Contracts | Won | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3–10% | 41 | 2.4% | 5.1% |
| 10–20% | 17 | 0% | 13.1% |
| 80–90% | 17 | 88.2% | 85.8% |
| 90–97% | 57 | 96.5% | 95.1% |
Midpoint of the bid and ask at the hourly close at 21:00 UTC. Source: Kalshi public market data; our analysis.
With an hour to go, long shots were still overpriced: 58 contracts priced between 3% and 20% won once between them, against about four wins implied by their prices. The middle bands were too small at 4 p.m., with 14–17 contracts each, to say anything reliable.
Why long shots are overpriced
The favourite–long-shot bias is one of the most consistently documented patterns in betting markets, from horse racing to sports betting, and there are several explanations for it:
- Preference for big payouts. Some traders are willing to overpay for a small chance of a large return, just as lottery players do.
- Costs of selling. To push a 5¢ long shot down to its fair price of, say, 2¢, someone has to sell it, which means tying up 95¢ or more per contract to earn a few cents. Few traders find that attractive.
- Fees and spreads. A minimum price increment and a spread of a few cents put a floor under how cheap a contract can trade.
The last two points suggest the bias is partly structural: even if traders' beliefs were perfectly calibrated, the mechanics of the market would keep the cheapest contracts slightly above their true probability.
Key points
- Calibrated middle: contracts priced 20–80% won about as often as their prices said.
- Overpriced long shots: contracts at 3–10% won none of 110 times; those at 10–20% won once in 43.
- Underpriced favourites: 80–90% contracts won 91% of the time; 90–97% contracts won 98%.
- Tight forecasts: the noon ladder's midpoint missed Bitcoin's 5 p.m. settlement by a median of 0.36%.
- Depth: Bitcoin's 5 p.m. markets traded about 100 million contracts in October; XRP's about 0.7 million.
FAQ
Are Kalshi's crypto price markets accurate? In October 2026, the middle of the daily ladders was well calibrated, but long shots were overpriced and near-certainties slightly underpriced.
What settles Kalshi's daily Bitcoin market? The simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index over the 60 seconds before 5 p.m. ET, according to the contract rules.
Which crypto market on Kalshi is most liquid? Bitcoin, by a wide margin: its 5 p.m. markets traded about 100 million contracts in October, against about 6 million for Ethereum and 0.7 million for XRP.
Is it worth buying cheap long-shot contracts? On the October data, no: contracts priced 3–10% five hours before settlement never won.
Can I see the prices for today's markets? Yes, on Kalshi's crypto pages and our crypto markets page.
Data from 1 to 31 October 2026. Sources: Kalshi public market data and contract rules. Not investment advice.
