Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15)
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 00:37 UTCCloses 17 Nov 2026 (in 9 days)
Most likely: Above 180
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Above 180 | 87% | — |
Above 185 | 81% | — |
Above 190 | 58% | ▼ 22.0 pts |
Above 195 | 42% | ▼ 37.0 pts |
Above 200 | 39% | ▲ 9.0 pts |
Above 205 | 29% | ▼ 9.0 pts |
Above 210 | 12% | — |
Above 220 | 8% | — |
How this market resolves
If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 180 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15)”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Above 180 as the most likely outcome at 87% (as of 9 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 17 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.