When will Anthropic release Opus 6?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 00:36 UTCCloses 1 Dec 2026 (in 22 days)
Most likely: Before Dec 1, 2026
All outcomes (2)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Before Dec 1, 2026 | 17% | ▲ 6.0 pts |
Before Nov 16, 2026 | 10% | — |
How this market resolves
If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “When will Anthropic release Opus 6”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Before Dec 1, 2026 as the most likely outcome at 17% (as of 9 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More tech & ai markets
- KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?2%Before Jan 1, 2027
- KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?61%Gemini
- KalshiBest AI this month77%Gemini
- PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?97%December 31
- PolymarketGemini Carbon released by...?99%December 31
- PolymarketGTA 6 launch postponed again?2%Yes
Latest tech & ai news
- Elvis and Eminem rights holders are suing Suno8 Nov 2026· The Verge · AI
- Texas Tech vs. West Virginia odds: Use Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS for $25 bonus on college football picks8 Nov 2026· CBS Sports
- NYT Cooking’s AI assistant saved my weeknight chicken, but almost ruined my cake7 Nov 2026· The Verge · AI
- The US let Nvidia sell chips to an empty office in China7 Nov 2026· The Verge · AI
Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.