Panama Canal effectively closed by...?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 00:37 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 53 days)
Most likely: December 31
All outcomes (2)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
December 31 | 7% | — |
November 30 | 3% | ▲ 0.1 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Panama Canal Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Panama Canal at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/44d73fd00bbc4f73a16d46d5beb11b4d , including both the chart and downloadable files.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Panama Canal effectively closed by...”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price December 31 as the most likely outcome at 7% (as of 9 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More elections markets
- KalshiHow many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?99%Above 52
- PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?67%March 31
- KalshiWho will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?97%Stephen Miller
- KalshiHow many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)89%56
- PolymarketVenezuela leader end of 2026?94%Nicolás Maduro
- KalshiHow many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?>99%Below 193
Latest elections news
- How Hinojosa’s win in Texas could bite Beshear8 Nov 2026· Politico
- Democratic thrashing redraws the map of state power8 Nov 2026· Politico
- Kalshi US Midterm Election Trading Tops $2.5 Billion, Nearly Double 2024 Level8 Nov 2026· bloomingbit
- 'Flat', 'tired', 'cynical': Unusually gloomy Kiwis deliver New Zealand's tightest election in years8 Nov 2026· BBC World
Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.