SBF released from custody in 2026?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 00:36 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 53 days)
Chance of “Yes”
Outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | — |
No | 98% | — |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “SBF released from custody in 2026”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price “Yes” at 2% (as of 9 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More elections markets
- KalshiHow many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?99%Above 52
- PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?67%March 31
- KalshiWho will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?97%Stephen Miller
- KalshiHow many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)89%56
- PolymarketVenezuela leader end of 2026?94%Nicolás Maduro
- KalshiHow many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?>99%Below 193
Latest elections news
- How Hinojosa’s win in Texas could bite Beshear8 Nov 2026· Politico
- Democratic thrashing redraws the map of state power8 Nov 2026· Politico
- Kalshi US Midterm Election Trading Tops $2.5 Billion, Nearly Double 2024 Level8 Nov 2026· bloomingbit
- 'Flat', 'tired', 'cynical': Unusually gloomy Kiwis deliver New Zealand's tightest election in years8 Nov 2026· BBC World
Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.