When will the next US recession start?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 00:36 UTCCloses 31 Dec 2026 (in 53 days)
Most likely: Q4 2025
All outcomes (6)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Q4 2025 | 5% | — |
Q2 2025 | 1% | — |
Q4 2024 | <1% | — |
Q1 2026 | <1% | — |
Q1 2025 | <1% | — |
Q3 2025 | <1% | — |
How this market resolves
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “When will the next US recession start”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Q4 2025 as the most likely outcome at 5% (as of 9 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 31 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.