Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 00:36 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 53 days)
Most likely: $7.000+
All outcomes (4)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
$7.000+ | 52% | — |
$9.000+ | 28% | ▲ 2.0 pts |
$8.000+ | 17% | ▲ 3.0 pts |
$10.000+ | 7% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will ground beef hit __ in 2026”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price $7.000+ as the most likely outcome at 52% (as of 9 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.